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Dimitrov, Boyan

President

 

 

 

Kashtanov, Viktor

Vice President

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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The Gnedenko Forum (the Forum) is to serve as an umbrella organization for fulfilling the professional needs of all individuals who have an interest in the scientific and technical aspects of reliability, risk analysis and safety, theoretical and applied. The Forum will be virtual and internet - based, unencumbered by obligations to commercial and profit-making entities. It is designed to encompass all technical specialists interested in the topic of reliability, safety, and risk analysis irrespective of their physical and organizational co-ordinates.

The Forum will also serve as an unbiased and neutral entity that disseminates scientific information to the press and the public on matters pertaining to the risk and reliability of complex technological systems. It will publish newsletters, technical papers, technical reports, and expository essays for timely dissemination of knowledge and information, but with a strong emphasis on scientific credibility. It will also serve as a vehicle for disseminating information on scholarships, fellowships, and academic and professional positions in reliability, safety, and risk analysis all over the world.

The Forum was founded in 2005 as an informal international group of experts on reliability. The Forum is named after Boris Gnedenko, outstanding Soviet mathematician, specialist in probability theory, mathematical statistics, probability and statistical methods and Academician of the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences (former USSR).

 

The Forum is non-profit organization.  Financial support of the Forum (for instance, payment for the Forum’s website, editing journal papers, running the site) is performed based on voluntary donations from the Forum’s members:

 

Name of the Account Holder: BOYAN DIMITROV

Name of Bank: HUNTINGTON BANK

Routing Number: 044000024

Account Number: 02383625786

Account Nickname: Forum Funds

Account Type: CHECKING

City and Country of bank branch Address: HUNTOMGTON  NATIONAL  BANK, 41 SOUTH HIGH STREET, COLUMBUS, OH 43213

Swift Code: HUNTUS33

Transit Code: No

We are publishing  International electronic journal “Reliability: Theory & Applications.

 

The journal has been registered in the Library of the U.S. Congress (ISSN 1932-2321).  Electronic Journal Reliability: Theory & Applications has been publishing since January 2006.

 

Actually the Journal covers various fields of Risk Analysis (reliability, safety, security, survivability, anti-terrorism defensive ability, quality control, reliability testing, queuing models, and other related topics).

 

Template (LaTex) of Electronic Journal Reliability: Theory & Applications

 

Objectives and Tasks 
 
The objectives of the Forum shall be the development of reliability and queuing theories and their applications by information exchange between specialists in these directions. Areas of interest of the Forum’s activity include (but not limited by) the following models and their application:

  • System Reliability Analysis

  • Queuing Models Analysis

  • Fighting Terrorism models

  • Operational Effectiveness

  • Safety

  • Survivability (Vulnerability)

  • Risk Analysis

  • Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

  • Optimum Reliability Allocation

  • Maintainability

  • Optimal Spare Supply

  • Optimal Inventory Control

  • Monte Carlo Simulation

  • Accelerated Testing

  • Reliability Data Analysis

  • Statistical Control

  • Quality Assurance

and other related topics 
 
The main tasks of the Gnedenko Forum are:

  • Establishing professional contacts among reliability and queuing specialists all over the world.

  • Exchange of information about forthcoming events in the Forum’s field of activity.

  • Exchange of information on new publications in the Forum’s field of activity.

  • Participation in international conferences and meetings, presenting the affiliating to the Forum.

  • Publication scientific and personal information in Forum’s e-journal.

  • Help to arrange participation of Forum’s members in getting consulting and grants.

Membership

 

The membership of the Forum is made by invitation (mainly) as well as collective (companies dealing with applied probability and statistics projects, corresponding departments of universities, etc.). There are no special requirements for membership except professional affiliation to the Forum’s professional activities. A member of the Forum has no obligations of any kind at all, though he/she has some rights: to publish materials in the Forum’s journal, elect the Forum’s officers, recommend new members for the Forum.

  1. The membership of the Forum might be personal (mainly) as well as collective (companies dealing with applied probability and statistics projects, corresponding departments of universities, research institutions, etc.) 

  2. There are no special requirements for membership except professional affiliation related to the fields of the Forum activity. 

  3. A member of the Forum has no obligations at all, though has some rights: to publish materials in the Forum’s e-journal “Reliability: Theory & Applications” (RTA) and may recommend new members for the Forum. 

  4. A new member is accepted into the Forum by e-mail presentation of documents of professional credibility (resume and list of publications) and photo. E-mails should be sent to the Forum’s Scientific Secretary Alexander Bochkov: a.bochkov@gmail.com.

  5. Membership in the Forum does not involve any financial obligations (no fees). 

  6. There are some organizational duties of elected officers and members of the Editorial board of the Forum’s e-journal concerning reviewing until submitted the current running the RTA journal and support the high rating of the RTA journal in scient metrics bases.

For the convenience of organizing the Forum activities, members may be grouped in Chapters by regions (countries, cities) or affiliations (companies, universities). In addition, it is possible to arrange such Chapters based on schools. There is a possibility to arrange Chapters by narrow professional interests (See list of directions). Each group thus arranged may/should desirably have an elected representative though it is not obligatory. A member of the Forum may participate in several Chapters. The objective of these Chapters is to provide members of the Forum with corresponding information arrange and/or participate professional meetings and compile special issues of the Forum’s journal.

 


 

Our Library

All books published on this page are available for free download. Permission for the free placement of manuscripts and published books was obtained from the authors. For copyright issues, please contact the authors.

 


Structural Reliability of Information Systems

I.B. Shubinsky

 

M.: "Journal Dependability",

2016, - 544 p., ill. (in Russian)

ISBN 978-5-7572-0399-7

 

The book presents the basic concepts and parameters of information systems’ structural reliability. It shows generality and specific differences in reliability indices used in domestic and international standards. The recent changes in approaches to reliability modeling are reflected. Markov models of reliability together with graph semi-Markov methods for reliability calculating which are illustrated by numerous examples are described in detail. Considerable attention is paid to the engineering methods of calculation and the approximate prediction of information systems’ structural reliability, error estimation, as well as to statistical assessment of reliability parameters. At the end of each chapter, there are checklists for the most complex and significant content of the chapter. The book is intended primarily for professionals involved in practical work on development, production, operation and modification of information systems. It is designed to scientists in the field of structural reliability of various discrete systems, academic staff, graduates (students) specializing in information systems, as well as in the field of automated control systems.

 


Structural reliability of information systems. Methods of analysis

I.B. Shubinsky

 

M.: "Journal Dependability",

2012, - 216 p., ill. (in Russian)

ISBN 978-5-7572-0326-3
 

The book presents basic concepts and indices of structural reliability of information systems, shows commonalities and specific distinctions of reliability indicators, applied in national and international standards. Recent changes in approaches to reliability modeling are reflected. Markov reliability models and graph semi-Markov methods of reliability calculation are described in detail, which are illustrated by numerous examples. Considerable attention is paid to engineering methods of calculation and approximate prediction of structural reliability of information systems, estimates of calculation errors, and statistical evaluation of reliability indicators. At the end of each chapter are the control questions on the most complex and significant material of the chapter. material of the chapter. The book is intended primarily for specialists engaged in practical work in developing, producing, operating and modifying information systems. It is intended for researchers in the field of structural reliability of various discrete The book is also intended for engineers working in the field of structural reliability of various discrete systems, pedagogical staff, undergraduate and graduate students specializing in information systems and automated control systems. The book is intended for researchers and graduate and undergraduate students working in the field of information systems and also in the field of automated control systems.

 


Functional reliability of information systems. Methods Analysis

I.B. Shubinsky

 

Ulyanovsk. Regional Printing House.
"Pechatny dvor", 2012. - 296p., ill. (in Russian)
ISBN 978-5-7572-0327-0

This book is the first presentation of the theory of functional reliability of
of information systems as part of the general theory of reliability. It includes concepts and definitions, main threats to functional reliability of information systems; system of indicators; methods of functional reliability assessment of digital devices; methods and models of functional reliability estimation of software. A separate chapter considers the functional reliability of critical critical information systems, including the concept of critical system, peculiarities of failure error assessment, assessment of functional reliability of operators, hazardous failure and risk assessment, requirements for functional reliability and software architecture requirements critical information systems software architecture. At the end of each chapter, there are quiz questions on the most complex and relevant material in the chapter. The book is designed primarily for professionals engaged in Practical work in developing, producing, operating and information technologies and information systems. It It is intended for research workers in the field of reliability of software and hardware hardware reliability of information systems, teaching staff, graduate and undergraduate students specializing in the field of information The book is intended for researchers and graduate and undergraduate students specializing in the field of information technology and automated control systems.
 


 

Design and technology reliability analysis. Toolkit (Case of spacecraft separation system)

Yu.P. Pokhabov

 

preprint / Zheleznogorsk, 2020. - 57 p.

 

An algorithm for making and justifying design decisions, taking into account reliability, is presented. Design and technology reliability analysis is given, aimed at early prevention of possible failures. An example of the analysis of the performance and reliability of the spacecraft separation system is considered. The toolkit is intended for designers and specialists in conducting analytical verification of the development of unique highly responsible systems.

 


 

Foundation of event-driven management of quality of economics, the state and human life

Solozhentsev, E.D.

 

St. Petersburg: Nauka Publishers, 2021. — 175 p. (in Russian)

ISBN 978-5-02-040314-7

 

The analysis of the existing quality management of economics and the state is carried out and a way out of the critical state is proposed. We have formulated a new scientific direction: event-driven management of the quality of economics, the state and human life based on the algebra of logic, Boolean statements-events, logical-probabilistic calculus and artificial intelligence. The event-driven management of the quality of economics and the state “from above” is considered: new criteria and objects of management; new knowledge and models. New tasks of managing economic systems, safety of living, quality of human life, exit of the economy from stagnation have been formulated. The event-driven management of economics and the state “from below” is stated: the problem of managing the quality of human life is formulated; scenarios, logical and probabilistic models for managing the quality of treatment, training and decision-making processes are developed. Applications for assessing the quality of human life for solving real problems are named. The relationship between public opinion, special Software Arbiter and Expa and digital economics in the systematization of research results on the quality of life of different people and management from below is considered. The provision of event-driven management of the quality of economics, the state and human life is described: a course of additional education, the basics of LP-calculus, methods for constructing LP-risk models, transformation of databases into knowledge bases, LP-risk modeling technology.


 

Actual Problems of Modeling and Analysis of Queuing Networks 

G.Sh. TsitsiashviliM.A. Osipova

 

Kazan: Buk, 2020. - 88 p. - Text: direct. (in Russian)
ISBN 978-5-00118-576-5.
 

The monograph includes the most significant results of the authors on the analysis of applied queuing models over the past 5 years, reflected in peer-reviewed journals of various levels. The monograph is mainly devoted to the study of synergetic effects in stochastic systems with Poisson input flows and general input flows. The choice of material was determined by modern trends in the widespread introduction of digital technology tools in the work of various complex systems. Starting from the idea of developing non-standard methods of modeling, obtaining new analytical methods bypassing the cumbersome technology, it was possible to build and study many different application models. The methods of solving the problems presented in the monograph are based on the theory of random processes, queuing theory, graph theory, and system analysis. The monograph is intended for researchers in the field of probabilistic modeling, system analysis, and applied mathematics.


 

Theory and practice of ensuring the reliability of mechanical devices one-time operation

(in Russian)

Pokhabov Yu.P.

 

Monograph. Krasnoyarsk, 2018.

ISBN 978-5-7638-3812-1 (e-version: ISBN 978-5-7638-3900-5).

 

Theoretical basis and practical methods for ensuring the reliability of products of single and small-scale production with a low probability of failure are described. Using the examples of mechanical devices for one-time operation of spacecraft, the possibility of solving the problems of reliability of unique products without the use of the mathematical apparatus of the theory of reliability is shown. The analysis of design and technological factors determining reliability is presented. An engineering and technical approach has been developed to ensure reliability at various stages of the life cycle, based on imparting the developed product with properties that contribute to the unconditional fulfillment of service purpose. The technique of design and technological analysis of reliability is given. Methods of design and technological support and evaluation of the reliability of unique products are proposed. The principles and rules of design are considered to ensure the required reliability. Designed for practicing engineers engaged in the development of mechanical devices one-time operation. It may be useful to specialists in the field of reliability of unique highly responsible systems for various purposes.


 

INtegrated Analysis and Assessment Problems of Individual Structural Reliability of Spacecraft (Case of Deployable Structures)

Preprint (in Russian)

S.A.Timashev, Yu.P. Pokhabov.

 

Yekaterinburg, 2018.

ISBN 978-5-8057-0999-0.

 

The preprint describes an original methodology of quantitative reliability assessment of extremely expensive science-based objects/unique   structures that are components of critical/strategic infrastructures, which are manufactured in smallest batches or even as single structures. This theory got the name of individual structural reliability (TISR) and is compared with the qualitative methodology of design & technology reliability analysis (DTRA) as related to the design of high reliability spacecraft. With the development of the 3D digital technology the share of unique products in all sectors of contemporary machine-building and adjacent sectors of industry (ship-building, aircraft building) is growing non-stop. In this preprint this class of technical objects, usually, non-renewable systems, is represented as folding robotic one-time-deployment-when-on-orbit technological complexes, designed to serve without interruption for 12-15 years in the near-space environment.


 

THE Robust Method of Mathematical Statistics

(in Russian)

Shulenin V.P.

 

Tomsk, Publisher NTL, 2016

Pages: 260

ISBN 978-5-89503-575-7

 

Classical statistical methods for the most part have an increased sensitivity to the initial assumptions of the statistical model adopted in the processing of experimental data. When solving applications inevitably arise from deviations presuppositions model and the application of standard techniques in these conditions, it may be efficient enough and often leads to significant distortions of statistical conclusions. In connection with the etymology there is a need to build new, non-traditional methods of information processing, stable (or robust) for possible deviations of the actual characteristics of the data from those anticipated. This book is dedicated to the construction and investigation of robust parameter estimates to be submitted in the form of functionals of the empirical probability distribution functions. A brief overview of the basic concepts and approaches to the construction of robust procedures, quality characteristics which "resistant" to the possible deviations from the accepted model. Examples of the properties of the robustness of the proposed evaluation parameters of the position and scale, performed their comparison under various supermodels. Proposed modifications and extensions Hodges-Lehmann estimates, Gini mean difference, interquartile amplitude, etc. Approaches to building adaptive assessments with the use of functional assessment, describing the degree of "lengthy tail" of the distribution of probabilities observation are discussed . The book is intended for students and post-graduate students of universities, researchers, the address may also be useful to teachers in the development of courses of lectures for undergraduates and graduate students in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Cybernetics.


 

Reliability Modeling Prediction

Andres Carrion Garcia

Ljubisa Papic

 

Edition: 2016,

Publisher: DQM Research Centre,

ISBN: 978-86-86355-20-1

 

Modern engineers come into touch with complex systems, which requires knowledge about different problems (issues). However, seeking for necessary data and information usually generates significant difficulties because they are scattered in numerous books and journals. Authors of this book have tried to remove such difficulties and to explain wide enough circles of questions relevant for modeling and prediction of system reliability. In this way, this book could be useful practical source for engineers which try to enter the systems reliability field. Book is suitable as material for university course about system reliability field for students of almost every engineering discipline, on graduate, MSc and PhD studies who are interested in reliability problems. The book contains enough material for single semester subject (course) emphasizing basics and appliance of classical reliability engineering. This book, as a serious task, represents the result of perennial cooperation in researching and in university teaching between Department of Operational Research, Applied Mathematics and Quality (Polytechnic University of Valencia), Valencia, Spain and Research Center of Dependability and Quality Management, Prijevor, Serbia, during the period of 15 years (2001-2015). Through this monograph authors tried to provide basic knowledge from the field of reliability theory, failure analysis, safety analysis and systems maintenance concept, which could be useful for reliability modeling and prediction during design, testing and exploiting different human made systems for obtaining maximal effectiveness of their operation. The "Reliability Modeling Prediction" monograph considers issues of reliability analysis, safety analysis, failure analysis and systems maintenance concepts. Under systems the authors allude to different kinds of technical objects (equipment, gears, instruments and mechanisms) which different branches of industry design, produce, exploiting and maintenance. This monograph describes in detail: probability concept of reliability, reliability quantification, probability distributions for reliability analysis, types of reliability tests and reliability testing plans, reliability block diagram method, failure modes, effects and criticality analysis, fault tree analysis, event tree analysis and systems maintenance concepts.


 

NEW MEASURES OF PROXIMITY, FUNCTIONS OF STATES AND DECISION RULES IN THE THEORY  OF PATTERN  RECOGNITION (STATES)

Uzdin Dmitry

 

(In Russian)

 

New proximity measures and function of states are proposed – they are mathematics - diagnostic models of various diagnoses. High efficiency of these proximity measures and functions of states contributing correct recognition of condition of any processes and objects is shown. Proposed proximity measures, functions of state and resolving rules are necessary for the solution of problems of the fastest finding of failure, destructive and other dangerous conditions. For the purpose of increase of reliability of recognition of states creating danger to life or people’s wellbeing, the multiple set of resolving rules when establishing of the diagnosis is made. The brochure is oriented for cybernetics and scientists of different fields of knowledge who apply recognition theory methods in their researches and also for senior students of the corresponding specialties.