Thomas L. Saaty
Office: 322
Mervis Hall
Phone: 412-648-1539
E-mail:
saaty@katz.pitt.edu
Degrees
PhD,
Mathematics, Yale University, 1953
Post-graduate study, University of Paris, 1952-53
MA, Mathematics, Yale University, 1951
MS, Physics, Catholic University of America, 1949
BA , Columbia Union College, 1948
Courses Recently Taught
BQOM
2904 Creative Thinking and Problem Solving (MBA)
BQOM 2521 Decision Making (MBA)
Decision Making (IEMBA)
Decision Making Lecture (CBA)
Interest Groups
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Operations,
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Decision Sciences,
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Artificial Intelligence
Profile
Prior to
coming to the University of Pittsburgh, Thomas L. Saaty was a professor
at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania for 10 years and
before that was for seven years in the Arms Control and Disarmament
Agency at the U.S. State Department. He is a member of the National
Academy of Engineering. Saaty is a member of the National Academy of
Engineering and serves on the Board of Advisors to Decision Lens, a
company based on his Analytic Hierarchy Process and Analytic Network
Process.
He is the
architect of the decision theory, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
and its generalization to decisions with dependence and feedback, the
Analytic Network Process (ANP). He has published numerous articles and
more than 12 books on these subjects. His nontechnical book on the AHP,
Decision Making for Leaders, has been translated to more than 10
languages. His book, The Brain: Unraveling the Mystery of How It Works,
generalizing the ANP further to neural firing and synthesis, appeared in
the year 2000. Some of the research on neural synthesis was done in
collaboration with Luis G. Vargas. He is currently involved in extending
his mathematical multicriteria decision-making theory to how to
synthesize group and societal influences. He is also developing the
Super Decisions software that implements the ANP and it is available
free at www.superdecisions.com.
The AHP is
used in both individual and group decision-making by business, industry,
and governments and is particularly applicable to complex large-scale
multiparty multicriteria decision problems The ANP has been applied to a
variety of decisions involving benefits, costs, opportunities, and risks
and is particularly useful in predicting outcomes. At the Katz School he
teaches Decision Making in Complex Environments, using both the AHP and
the ANP and Creativity and Problem Solving. He has recently completed a
book on the subject of creativity and problem solving that includes a CD
of more than 140 colorful specially designed PowerPoint slides.
In 1999 he
consulted on decision making for, among others, the Ford Motor Company,
the government of Iran, the Alaska Department of Fisheries, and the
Environmental Protection Agency. In July of 1999 the Fifth International
Symposium on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (ISAHP) was held in Kobe,
Japan. In August of 2001 the Sixth ISAHP was held in Bern, Switzerland.
The Seventh ISAHP was in Bali, Indonesia, in 2003, and the Eighth ISAHP
will be held in Hawaii in 2005.
He has made
contributions in the fields of operations research (parametric linear
programming, epidemics and the spread of biological agents, queuing
theory, and more generally behavioral mathematics as it relates to
operations). He also made contributions in arms control and disarmament,
writing a book on mathematical models in that field, and in urban
design, where he coauthored the book Compact City with George B. Dantzig.
He has written books and articles in graph theory and its applications,
nonlinear mathematics, analytical planning, and game theory and conflict
resolution.
His current
hobbies are writing small books on humor, building and restoring
furniture, making up and collecting stories about the creative process,
and studying what and how his black Labrador Retriever Smoky thinks and
generalizing this to contacts with "intelligent" creatures in outer
space.
Research
Interest Areas
Decision
Making: Developing the mathematical theory of the Analytic Network
Process (ANP) for decisions with dependence and feedback to decisions
with benefits opportunities, costs and risks. The ANP is a
generalization of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), which Saaty
created, by assisting governments and corporations in making decisions
such as: trading off weapon systems in arms control negotiations,
defending against attacks by terrorists and the feasibility of acquiring
manufacturing plants in overseas countries in the face of strong
competition.
Conflict
Resolution: Applying the Analytic Network Process to propose solutions
to a variety of international conflicts discussed in his book Conflict
Resolution and several works after including the 2003 war in Iraq and
the Isreali-Palestinian conflict. Proposed and widely circulated the
creation of an International Center for Conflict Resolution (ICCR).
Corresponded and visited with interested world leaders. Saaty is
concerned about the spread of nuclear weapons around the world and the
increasing threat of a world war.
Process
thinking as an advance in systems thinking suggests that systems are
always subject to change and improvement, and this applies to our world
in general and its integration through the spread of ideas and through
trade and interdependence. There is no holding back of the progressive
forces shaping the future of mankind. Saaty iswriting a book to show
that the AHP/ANP is a natural way for people to work together by laying
out their goals and purposes to plan and design systems that allow for
change and for improvement. Saaty has developed and extensively applied
a practical method for projecting the likely future based on the use of
both tangible and intangible factors and for working backwards to
identify strategies to better attain desired futures.
Research on
neural networks: how the synthesis of firing of neurons is intimately
related to decision making using ratio and proportion.
Publications
Books:
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The
Encyclicon (with M. Ozdemir), RWS Publications, 4922 Ellsworth
Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, 2004.
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Creative Thinking, Problem Solving & Decision Making, RWS
Publications, 4922 Ellsworth Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, 2001.
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Models,
Methods, Concepts and Applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process
(with L.G. Vargas), Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, 2000.
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The
Brain, Unraveling the Mystery of How it Works: The Neural Network
Process, RWS Publications, 4922 Ellsworth Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA
15213, 2000.
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The
Analytic Network Process: Decision Making with Dependence and
Feedback, RWS Publications, 1996, completely revised and published
2001.
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Fundamentals of Decision Making with the Analytic Hierarchy Process,
paperback, RWS Publications, 4922 Ellsworth Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA
15213-2807, original edition 1994, revised 2000.
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Decision Making for Leaders; the Analytical Hierarchy Process for
Decisions in a Complex World, Wadsworth, Belmont, Calif., 1982.
Translated to French, Indonesian, Spanish, Korean, Arabic, Persian,
and Thai. The latest version is available from RWS Publications,
4922 Ellsworth Ave., Pittsburgh, PA 15213, 2000.
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Papers,
Articles, and Chapters in Books:
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"Decision Making—The Analytic Hierarchy and Network Processes (AHP/ANP),"
Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering, published at
Tsinghua University, Beijing, Vol. 13, No. 1, pp 1–35, March 2004.
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"Fundamentals of the Analytic Network Process: Dependence and
Feedback in Decision-Making with a Single Network," Journal of
Systems Science and Systems Engineering, published at Tsinghua
University, Beijing (to appear), Vol. 13, No. 2, June 2004.
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"Fundamentals of the Analytic Network Process: Multiple Networks
with Benefits, Costs, Opportunities and Risks," Journal of Systems
Science and Systems Engineering, published at Tsinghua University,
Beijing (to appear), Vol. 13, No. 3, September, 2004.
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"Automatic Decision-Making: Neural Firing and Response," Journal of
Systems Science and Systems Engineering, published at Tsinghua
University, Beijing, (to appear), Vol. 13, No. 4, December, 2004.
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"The
Analytic Hierarchy and Analytic Network Processes for the
Measurement of Intangibles and for Decision-Making," 67-page chapter
in Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis: The State of the Art
Surveys. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, edited by Figueira,
J., Greco, S. and Ehrgott, M. (2004).
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"Rank
from Comparisons and from Ratings in the Analytic Hierarchy/ Network
Processes" (forthcoming), European Journal of Operations Research,
2004.
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"Why
the Magic Number Seven Plus or Minus Two," Mathematical and Computer
Modeling, 38, 233–244, 2003 (with M. Ozdemir).
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"Theory
of the Analytic Hierarchy and Analytic Network Process—Examples Part
2.2," The International Journal of Systems Research and Information
Technologies, 2, 2003.
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"Time
Dependent Decision-Making; Dynamic Priorities in the AHP/ANP,
Generalizing from Points to Functions and From Real to Complex
Variables", Proceedings of the 7th ISAHP Symposium on the AHP, Bali,
Indonesia, August 2003.
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"Theory
of the Analytic Hierarchy Process, Part 2.1," The International
Journal of Systems Research and Information Technologies, 1, 2003.
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"Decision-making with the AHP: Why is the principal eigenvector
necessary," European Journal of Operations Research, 145 (2003)
85–9.
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Priorities as Dominance in Derived Measurement: Invariance of the
Principal Eigenvector, International Journal of information
Technology and Decision Making, Vol. 2, No. 2 (2003), 185–195 (With
M. Ozdemir).
-
"Negative Priorities in the Analytic Hierarchy Process,"
Mathematical and Computer Modeling, 37 (2003), 1063–1075 (with M.
Ozdemir).
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"The
Allocation of Intangible Resources: The Analytic Hierarchy Process
and Linear Programming," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 37
(2003), 169–184 (with L. Vargas and K. Dellmann).
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"How to
Make and Justify a Decision: The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP);
Part 1. Examples and Applications," The Journal of the Ukrainian
Academy of Sciences, 2002, 1.
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"Decision Making with the Analytic Hierarchy Process," The Iranian
Academy of Sciences Journal, Scientia Iranica, Vol. 9, No. 3, July
2002.
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"Forecasting the Resurgence of the US Economy in 2001: An Expert
Judgment Approach," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 36(2002),
77–91 (with Andrew R. Blair, Robert Nachtmann, and Rozann Whitaker).
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Wrote
preface for the book Modernes Entscheiden mit AHP und Expert Choice,
by Oliver Meixner and Rainer Haas of Vienna, Austria, published in
German in 2001.
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"In the
Brain Ratio Scales Are Critical for Modeling Neural Synthesis,"
Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Artificial Neural
Networks and Genetic Algorithms (ICANNGA), Academy of Sciences, The
Czech Republic, Prague, April 22–25, 2001.
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"Hypermatrix
of the Brain," Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on
Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms (ICANNGA), Academy
of Sciences, The Czech Republic, Prague, April 22–25, 2001.
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"Deriving the AHP 1-9 Scale from First Principles," ISAHP 2001
Proceedings, Bern, Switzerland, August, 2–4, 2001.
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"Decision Making with the AHP: Why Is the Principal Eigenvector
Necessary?" ISAHP 2001 Proceedings, Bern, Switzerland, August, 2–4,
2001.
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"Decision Making with the Analytic Network Process (ANP) and Its
'Super Decisions' Software: The National Missile Defense (NMD)
Example," ISAHP 2001 Proceedings, Bern, Switzerland, August, 2–4,
2001.
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"The
Decision by the US Congress on China’s Trade Status: A Multicriteria
Analysis," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 35(2001), 243–252 (with
Yeonmin Cho).
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"Fundamentals of the Analytic Hierarchy Process," Chapter 2 in The
Analytic Hierarchy Process in Natural Resource and Environmental
Decision Making, edited by Daniel L. Schmoldt, Jyrki Kangas,
Guillermo A. Mendoza, and Mauno Pesonen, Kluwer Academic Publishers,
2001.
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"The
Seven Pillars of the Analytic Hierarchy Process," Chapter 2 in
Multiple Criteria Decision Making in the New Millennium, edited by
Murat Köksalan and Stanley Zionts, Springer, 2001.
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"Ratio
Scales are Essential in Neural Synthesis," Invited Lecture, Academy
of Sciences, Prague, The Czech Republic, Springer Verlag, to appear
April 2001.
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"Hypermatrix
of the Brain," Invited Lecture, Academy of Sciences, Prague, The
Czech Republic, Springer Verlag, to appear April 2001.
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"Como
Tomar Una Decisions y," published in a new magazine on decision
making in Argentina: Decisiones: Toma de Decisiones, January 2000,
Vol. I, No. 1, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
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"Basic
Theory of the Analytic Hierarchy Process: How to Make a Decision,"
Rev .R. Acad. Cienc. Exact. Fis. Nat. (Spanish), Vol. 93, No. 4, pp.
395–423, 1999.
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"On the
relativity of relative measures—accommodating both rank preservation
and rank reversals in the AHP" (with Ido Millet), European Journal
of Operational Research, 121 (2000), pp. 205–212.
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"The
AHP, the ANP and the NNP for Understanding Complexity with Derived
Relative Ratio Scales," Communications of the Operations Research
Society of Japan, Special Issue on AHP, Vol. 44 (1999), pp. 6–7.
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"Principles of the Analytic Network Process," Proceedings of the
International Symposium on the Analytic Hierarchy Process, Kobe,
Japan, July 1999.
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"Seven
Pillars of the Analytic Hierarchy Process," Proceedings of the
International Symposium on the Analytic Hierarchy Process, Kobe,
Japan, July 1999.
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"Review
and Comments on the Research Report: 'Decision Making Related to the
U.S. Department of Energy's Environmental Management Office of
Science and Technology.'" An in-depth report for the National
Research Council, 15 pp., January 1999.
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Comment
and critique of the paper by Wright and Goodwin, published in The
International J. Multi-criteria Decision Analysis, Vol. 8, pp.
11–27, Jan. 1999.
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"Basic
Theory of the Analytic Hierarchy Process: How to Make a Decision,"
Rev. R. Acad. Cienc. Exact. Fis. Nat. (J. of the Spanish Academy of
Science), Vol. 93, No. 4, pp. 395–423, 1999.
Awards and Honors
In
Who's Who in America and American Men of Science.
International Society of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (ISAHP)
established in honor of Saaty’s Analytic Hierarchy Process.
International meetings have been held in Tianjin in 1988, Pittsburgh
in 1991, Washington, D.C. in 1994, Vancouver in 1996, Kobe in 1999,
Bern in 2001, Bali in 2003.
2000,
Awarded the gold medal for work on decision making by the
International Society of Multi-criteria Decision Making.
1998,
Elected a member of the International Academy of Management.
1984,
Beta Gamma Sigma Honor Society.
1982,
Alumnus of the Year Honor, Columbia Union College.
1982,
Notified that the Thomas L. Saaty Prize awarded to best research
papers in Mathematics and Management has been established.
1977,
Award from the Institute of Management Sciences, College on the
Practice of Management Science for his contributions and leadership
in one of the best applied studies of the year: The Sudan Transport
Plan, work in which 40 scientists, engineers, and world-renowned
Wharton colleague economist (Lawrence Klein, Nobel Laureate) were
involved over a period of two years to develop a comprehensive
transport plan for the Sudan, a study sponsored by the Kuwait fund
for Arab economic development.
1973,
Awarded the Lester R. Ford prize by the Mathematical Association of
America for his work on the four color problem.
1972–76, Invited by the Association for the Advancement of Science
(AAAS) in collaboration with the National Science Foundation to give
Chautauqua-type two-day lectures eight times a year around the
United States to professors of mathematics and science, on the
latest ideas in modeling, problem-solving and decision-making,
planning, and resource allocation.
1970,
Elected to the National Academy of Sciences, Spain.
1959,
Elected a Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of
Science.
External
Service and Assignments
MEMBERSHIPS:
American Mathematical Society
Mathematical Association of America
Operations Research Society of America
International Institute for Strategic Studies
World Future Society
International Peace Science Society
International Academy of Management
EDITORIAL POSITIONS:
Present
European Journal of Operational Research
Nonlinear Analysis with Applications, Associate Editor
Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Associate Editor
The International Journal of Systems, Measurement and Decisions,
Associate Editor
The Journal of Fuzzy Sets and Systems, Associate Editor
The Journal of Mathematical Modeling, Associate Editor
The Physical Review
Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis
Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering (JSSSE)
Past
Journal of Operations Research, Associate Editor, 1958–63
Mathematical Reviews, Reviewer, 1954–75
Newsletter for the Mathematical Sciences, Editor (and Originator),
1965–67
Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, Associate Editor
Consulting Activities
Governments of France, Egypt, Sudan, Kuwait (Council of Ministers),
Tanzania, and the United Nations. Westinghouse; U.S. Steel; RCA;
Woods Gordon of Canada; R.J. Reynolds; The Ford Foundation; American
Cyanimid; Colonial Penn Insurance; Pan American Airlines; Monsanto;
Xerox; Kodak; North American Rockwell; Westinghouse; Booz Allen
Applied Research; Logistics Management Institute; The Urban
Institute; Electric Power Research Institute; NASA; AID; LEAA;
Department of Defense; Department of the Air Force; National
Institute of Health; National Bureau of Standards; Bureau of the
Census.
Personal Interests
Collector, editor, and publisher of 21 books on "The Thinking Man's
Humor" (an international collection), under various humorous
pseudonyms.
Owner of a comprehensive collection both of books on Beethoven and
of his recorded works.
Source:
http://www.business.pitt.edu/faculty/saaty.html - University of
Pittsburgh
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