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RT&A_SI 2023, # 5(75) Vol.18

 

 

About This Issue

 

This special issue of the journal “Reliability: Theory and Applications” contains quality articles on innovative approaches to risk minimization. We would like to express our gratitude to all the participants of the RISK-2023 Conference for the submitted articles and the reviewers for their effective work in evaluating the submitted materials. We sincerely appreciate their excellent timely responses. The invited editors are also very grateful to the secretary, Doctor of Sci., Alexander Bochkov, for his constant support and constructiveness in the process of reviewing and drafting the proposal of the special issue. We hope that this special issue will make a significant contribution to improving the scientific field of assessment, analysis and management of natural and man-made risks.


Prof. Dr. Sviatoslav TIMASHEV
 

Ural Federal University, Russia
Old Dominion University, USA
e-mail:
timashevs@gmail.com


Prof. Dr. Vugar ALIYEV
 

CEO & Founder
International Event Organizer Company
AMIR Technical Services LLC,
e-mail:
prof.vugar.aliyev@gmail.com

 

 

 

 


 

RANDOMNESS, UNCERTAINTY, INCOMPLETENESS, RISK AND ITS MEASUREMENTS

 

Vladimir Rykov, Boyan Dimitrov, Alexander Bochkov, Elvira Zaripova, Olga Kochueva

 

In this work we analyze different aspects regarding the terminology, understanding concepts and  approaches  in  modeling  and  measuring  components  and  variables  related  to  safety  and risk.  This  discussion  conversation  is  open  for  further  interpretations  and  suggestions.  We study it with the help of models (images) artificial, descriptions, scientific approaches, discussions, etc., and using the help of poly-semantic languages. Various kinds of risks arise precisely because of the uncertainty of the situation. Mathematical models use uncertainties in sever- al ways: randomness, which is explained and measured by objective probability and estimated using statistical methods. Uncertainty, measured by subjective probabilities, is estimated  by expert methods, or by fuzzy uncertainty methods. Each of these approaches has its advantages and disadvantages. Despite the difference in approaches to measuring uncertainties, the development of a risk situation are described in an appropriate way using an event tree. We show the construction of an event tree, that allows us to see details and specify in the development of a risk situation. We also discuss how this approach can be used to evaluate the sensitivity of the output characteristics of the process to the parameters of the initial information.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-31-43

 


 

REFLECTIONS ON DUAL NATURE OF RISK. TOWARD A FORMALISM

 

Alexander Bochkov

 

We seem to know almost everything about risk and, at the same time, nothing. By focusing on the etymology of the word "risk", researchers have neglected its nature, causes and characteristics. At the  same time, risk manifests itself differently  in  different  situations  and can be both a characteristic of a random event and a characteristic and measure of the quality of a process carried out over time.  In the latter case, risk is inherent in the properties of a wave process, which requires the search for measures other than probabilistic ones to measure and assess it. This paper attempts to summaries the most characteristic different manifestations of risk and to propose a way of assessing risk that takes account of these differences. The paper can  be  seen  as  an  invitation  to  debate  the  nature  of  risk  and  how  its  formalism  should  be constructed.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-44-74

 


 

RELIABILITY BASED DESIGN OF CIVIL AND INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING STRUCTURES USING THE LIFE QUALITY INDEX CRITERION

 

Anna Bushinskaya, Sviatoslav Timashev

 

The paper considers and analyses the current world practice of assigning acceptable values for the probability of failure of civil and industrial engineering structures based on monetary optimization using the life quality index. The analysis is illustrated by calculating the approximate  target  values  of  the  threshold  probability  of  failure  for  multi-storey  residential buildings in the Sverdlovsk region of the Russian Federation using the LQI criterion and the social willingness to pay concept assessment of the effectiveness of the costs of safety measures.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-75-88

 


 

MULTIFACTORIAL EMERGENCY FORECASTING METHODS

 

Vugar Aliyev, Zurab Gasitashvili, Merab Pkhovelishvili, Natela Archvadze, Lia Shetsiruli

 

Recently, great tragedies have occurred, which are caused by the coincidence of various factors in time and in locations. Failure to take into account the fact that different events will coincide in time and location is an error in the forecasting method, since such situations require the use of parallel data, which we will discuss here. The article gives a specific example of the coincidence of 5 natural geological and hydrometeorological events and shows how a natural  disaster could have been avoided using a new forecasting method.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-89-95

 


 

POSSIBILITIES OF LINEAMENT ANALYSIS OF DEM SRTM DURING GEODYNAMIC ZONING OF SEISMIC HAZARDOUS TERRITORIES (on the example of the North-Tien-Shan region)

 

Aleksandr Fremd, Arailim Gaipova, Dinara Talgarbaeva

 

Lineament  analysis  of  space  images  can  be  successfully  used  for  the  purposes  of  formalized analysis and development of maps of geodynamic zoning with the ranking of the study area into areas that differ in the degree of relative geodynamic activity. As calculated indicators of geodynamic  (neotectonic)  activity,  the  density  of  faults,  megacracks  and  other  lineaments, expressed by their total length per unit area, was used. Therefore, the parameter "density of strokes" is taken as the basis for the taxonomic division of the study area into regions according to the degree of tectonic disturbance of the earth's crust. All constructions are implement- ed on the basis of lineament analysis included in the CATALIST software package (Canada) On the example of two seismically hazardous regions of the Northern Tien Shan (Almaty and Zhambyl), the distribution features and properties of lineament density parameters are illustrated, followed by the construction of maps of geodynamic activity.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-96-110

 


 

TERRITORIAL RISKS ASSESSMENT OF NATURAL HAZARDS

 

Ulyana Postnikova, Olga Taseiko, Maksim Anikin

 

The presence of an unstructured data array predetermines the need to create an interconnected system of risk factors. The purpose of the study is to analyze the vulnerability of the Krasnoyarsk region territories to hazardous natural phenomena. This paper analyzes floods and forest fires, which are the most typical natural hazards for the areas under consideration. To identify areas most prone to natural hazards, a ranking was carried out according to the level of risk using GIS technologies.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-111-117

 


 

THE KURA ACTIVE FAULT – POTENTIAL SOURCE OF SIGNIFICANT HAZARD

 

Alexander Strom

 

An active fault stretching for more than 100 km along the Kura River between the tailing part of the Mingeçevir Reservoir in the east and the Azerbaijan-Georgia border in the west – the so-called Kura fault – is described in brief based on the analysis of space images. This active reverse fault with distinct evidence of Late Quaternary movements crosses the waterfronts of the Shamkir and the Enikend reservoirs.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-118-124

 


 

MANAGING THE RISK OF EMERGENCIES CAUSED BY GROUNDWATER FLOODING OF THE HISTORICAL BUILT-UP AREAS

 

Elena Arefyeva

 

The article presents an approach to managing the risk of groundwater  flooding emergencies, including those in historical built-up areas. The approach is based on the application of a set of methods,  including  the  method  of  forecasting,  the  method  of  developing  an  optimal  control action, and developing a compromise solution. The peculiarity of historical built-up areas is that  there  is  a  significant  cultural  layer  that  does  not  allow  drainage,  because  watered  soil preserves  the  cultural  layer.  At  the  same  time,  architectural  monuments  need  to  drain  the foundations and not water the soils of the foundations of structures.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-125-135

  


 

PERSPECTIVE OF USING GROUNDWATER IN THE GANIKH-AYRICHAY FOOTHILLS

 

Esmira Mustafayeva, Allahverdi Tagiyev

 

Most of the qualitative groundwater resources of Azerbaijan are concentrated in the Ganikh- Ayrichay foothills. As a result of research conducted in this area, it was revealed that the Ganikh-Ayrichay foothills has great prospects for water supply in Baku. According to earlier hydrogeological studies in Ganikh-Ayrichay foothills, widespread sources on the plains are associated with rocks of the fourth period, with gravel and various old rocks. Sources associated with the cliffs of the fourth period, are associated with groundwater rivers.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-136-141

 


 

PROCESSİNG OF DATA BASED ON FUZZY RULES

 

Kifayat Mammadova,  Yegana Aliyeva,  Matanat Hasanquliyeva

 

After  establishing  a  fuzzy  rule  base  using  the  interpolation  result  mechanism,  arranging  a fuzzy inference system is performed. The established system will infer about the level of risk using a  fuzzy  rule  base and  input statistics. In this  work,  the construction  of the  inference system has been determined using fuzzy rules interpolation.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-142-147

 


 

MORPHOMETRICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF AVALANCHES WITH THE USE OF A UAV (on the example of Ile Alatau)

 

Aidana Kamalbekova, Victor Blagoveshchensky, Sandugash Ranova, Uldzhan Aldabergen

 

The article deals with the experience of using an unmanned aerial vehicle (DJI Matrice 300 RTK) and Agisoft Metashape software to obtain the characteristics of avalanches that descend- ed in late March in the Shukur and Kotyrbulak tracts (Pioneer avalanche) in the Ile Alatau mountains. UAVs can perform observations in remote and dangerous areas, quickly reach the scene, and capture high-quality images and video.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-148-152

 


 

ESTIMATION OF THE PROBABILITY OF ELIMINATING CRITICAL FAILURES OF DISTANTLY CONTROLLED OBJECTS

 

Alexander Dokukin, Mikhail Lomakin

 

The problem of determining the probability of timely elimination of critical failures under conditions of incomplete data represented by small samples of hardware dwell time in failure state and critical hardware time is considered. This probability is the probability of stochastic dominance of the critical time of the hardware over the time of the hardware in the state of failure, i.e. the probability that the random time of the hardware in the state of failure is less than the critical time of the hardware. Critical time is the time during which the elimination of the occurred failures does not lead to the occurrence of an unrecoverable failure of the object or to a significant reduction in the efficiency of its functioning.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-153-157

 


 

THE ESSENCE OF THE DELPHI METHOD AND ITS MAIN ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES

 

Albina Berkaeva, Sergey Yablochnikov, Andrey Butyrin, Irina Tararyshkina, Tofig Mansurov

 

This article is devoted  to the study  of the essence and  main meaning of the Delphi method, developed in the 50s of the 20th century in the United States. In those years, this method was used  to  identify  the  impact  of  scientific  and  technological  progress  in  matters  of  a  military nature.  Now,  the  Delphi  method  is  universal  and  can  be  applied  in  any  branch  of  activity, which  increases  its  relevance.  In addition, we have  studied  the main advantages and  disadvantages of using this method at the level of world  experience. We also considered the problems of using the Delphi method at the level of the Russian economy.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-158-163

 


 

CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING OF THE BALTIC SEA: GENERAL PRINCIPLES AND APPROACHES

 

Leyla Bashirova, Vadim Sivkov, Marina Ulyanova, Aleksander Gavrikov, Arseniy Artamonov

 

The environment of the Baltic Sea is heavily influenced by human activities. In addition, the region is undergoing significant changes in the face of global climate change. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the state of the environment and greenhouse gas emissions in the region. In 2022, the Programme for the development of the system of climate and environmental monitoring of the Russian seas was launched. For the Baltic Sea, the spatial and temporal scheme of the regional monitoring module has been designed to carry out long-term, regular, and large-scale surveys. The satellite monitoring is based on the analysis of radiometer data and includes analyses  of  the  spatial  and  temporal  variability  of  suspended  particulate  matter  and  chlorophyll a concentrations, as well as sea surface temperature. The shipboard monitoring consists of  seasonal  and  monthly  surveys.  The  coastal  monitoring  is  based  on  data  from  sensors  in- stalled  on a 57-m met tower as a permanent  climate and  environmental monitoring  station located on the coast of the south-eastern part of the Baltic Sea (Kaliningrad Oblast, Russia).

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-164-171

 


 

INTERNATIONAL MODELS OF RISK MANAGEMENT: FERMA, COSO AND ISO

 

Valentina Dzobelova, Sergey Yablochnikov, Maxim Makhiboroda, Lyubov Manukhina, Anna Vedyashova

 

This article discusses the most important risk management standards that play a very significant role in the activity of any enterprise, both at the micro- and macro level, in order to re- duce negative factors that have an impact on the financial activities of the enterprise. During the analysis, we considered the main models of risk management known as FERMA, COSO and ISO, the origin of which is European, American and international, respectively. The scientific  work  reveals  the  essence  of  each  risk  management  model,  highlighting  their  features and characteristics.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-172-177

 


 

BIOMORPHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS AND OCCURANCE OF ENDEMIC AND RELICT SPECIES OF THE CHECHEN REPUBLIC

 

Zazu Iriskhanova, Khava Khanaeva, Birlant Khasueva

 

This article provides a biomorphological analysis and occurrence of endemic and relict species of the Chechen Republic. Endemic species (taxa unique to a particular geographical area) are characteristic elements of local biodiversity. Narrow endemics occupy isolated habitats, often associated  with  limited  ranges  of  ecological  conditions  or  small  common  geographic  ranges. The analysis is based on the processing of herbarium materials and field observations of the authors.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-178-185

 


 

ENGINEERING ESTIMATION OF AIR REGIME OF BUILDING FACADE SYSTEMS WITH FIRE CUT OFFS

 

Samira Akbarova, Reyhan Akbarli

 

The facade is one of the most important elements of the building in terms of its fire safety, as a fire leads to serious building damage and human casualties. The article considers the influence of fire cut-offs on the parameters of the airflow in the ventilated gap of the hinged facade sys- tem. An engineering estimation of solid and perforated horizontal fire cut-offs used in Azerbaijan is presented.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-186-194

 


 

PROSPECTS FOR AZERBAIJAN'S PARTICIPATION IN THE DIVERSIFICATION OF ENERGY SOURCES AND REDUCING THE RISKS OF ENERGY SUPPLY FAILURE TO EUROPE

 

Eldar Gasumov, Ramiz Gasumov, Gazanfar Suleymanov, Khalig Kurbanov

 

The article considers the prospects for Azerbaijan's participation in the diversification of energy supplies to the European market, in the conditions of the energy crisis due to the difficult geopolitical situation in the world. Possible ways to reduce the serious risks of failures in the supply of energy resources while ensuring the energy security of the countries of the European continent are given. The negative impact of the crisis that has arisen in the energy market on the global energy supply chain to the EU countries and on the state of the world economy is analyzed. Steps taken by the EU to radically increase supply via traditional  EU  import  routes  as  well  as  completely  new  sources  of  energy  are  examined.  Various measures implemented by European countries to ensure their own energy security, including the diversification  of  the  supply  of  energy  resources  used  to  generate  energy,  including  through  non-renewable mineral substances, renewable organic resources and a number of natural processes, are considered.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-195-205

 


 

ECOLOGY OF USED ENGINE OIL ADDINOL

 

Elvira Guseinova, Gahraman Hasanov, Elman Akhyadov

 

Comprehensive  spectroscopic  studies  of  used  and  regenerated  with  chloric  acid  samples  of ADDINOL engine oil were carried out. It was revealed that during the operation of engine oil, structural  changes  in  hydrocarbon  components,  the  formation  of  oxygen-containing  com- pounds, and the accumulation of products of thermal destruction and friction occur. An assessment was made of the qualitative changes in used motor oil under the influence of chloric acid.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-206-211

 


 

GEOHAZARDS AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ASSESSMENT PRACTICES OF PETROLEUM AND GAS PIPELINES USING MICROWAVE REMOTE SENSING

 

Emil Bayramov, Manfred Buchroithner, Martin Kada, Saida Aliyeva

 

These studies focused on the quantitative assessment of the surface displacement velocities and rates and their natural and man-made controlling factors as the potential risks along the seismically  active  70  km  section  of  buried  oil  and  gas  pipeline  in  Azerbaijan  using  Persistent Scatterer  Interferometric  Synthetic  Aperture  Radar  (PS-InSAR)  and  Small  Baseline  Subset (SBAS-InSAR)  remote  sensing  analysis.  The  diverse  spatial  distribution  and  variation  of ground  movement  processes  along  pipelines  demonstrated  that  general  geological  and  geotechnical understanding of the study area is not sufficient to find and mitigate all the critical sites of subsidence and uplifts for the pipeline operators. This means that both techniques out- lined in this paper provide a significant improvement for ground deformation monitoring or can  significantly  contribute  to  the  assessment  of  geohazards  and  preventative  countermeasures along petroleum and gas pipelines.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-212-221

 


 

CREATING FOREST CARBON LANDFILLS: FOREST CARBON

 

Rustam Gakaev, Magomed-Sadyk Bahaev, Islam Gumaev

 

Currently, significant attention is paid to environmental issues at all levels of management. Over the long history of human civilization, significant environmental damage has been ac- cumulated, because not only large-scale industrial production, but also ordinary human life leads to the formation of a significant amount of harmful products that pollute the atmosphere, soil, and water spaces. The huge scale of the accumulated damage makes it necessary to resolve environmental  issues  at  the  highest  level  -  the  level  of  international  organizations  and  the leadership of individual states.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-222-230

 


 

EVALUATING MEASURES TO SUPPORT DRYLAND RURAL POPULATIONS UNDER HIGH CLIMATIC UNCERTAINTY AND RISK: THE EXAMPLE OF THE ARAL SEA REGION

 

Georgy Fomenko, Marina A. Fomenko

 

Evaluating international technical assistance projects usually calls for assessing the efficiency and effectiveness of planned indicators. As climatic uncertainty and risk increase, there is a need to improve approaches to assessing the activities of such projects. Using the example of a project to adapt dryland dehkan households, cooperatives,  and  farms in the Aral Sea region (the Republic of Karakarpakstan in Uzbekistan) to climate change, this research methodically substantiates a set of indicators to assess the long-term effectiveness of adaptation measures. With regard to humanitarian support measures (which are strengthening the hydrometeoro- logical monitoring network, creating early warning systems, raising public awareness about various climate threats and possibilities to reduce their negative consequences, and reclaiming the dried-up Aral Sea bottom to reduce dustiness) that pursue noneconomic goals, an assessment was made against previously established project performance indicators.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-231-237

 


 

RISK ASSESSMENT OF USING ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE SYSTEMS IN CREATIVE HUMAN ACTIVITIES

 

Elshad Aliyev

 

Developing at an incredible pace, high technologies occupy almost all areas of human activity. Today, one of the most striking examples of high technology is undoubtedly systems classified as artificial intelligence (AI). AI and robots are widely used in manufacturing, heavy industry, agriculture, and many other industries, as well as in the arts. The development of artificial intelligence is of interest to many philosophers, sociologists and other scientists and raises many questions. A. Turing, S. McCarthy, A. Barr, M. A. Boden, M. Kokkelberg, A. Elgammal,  S.  Awdry  and  other  scientists  have  conducted  detailed  studies  of  artificial  intelligence systems, philosophical aspects, and creativity. However, despite numerous scientific  studies, the questions raised are still relevant. Do Robotic Artworks Prove the Creative Power of Artificial Intelligence? Can AI Be Creative in General? Most of these questions have different answers and  lead to conflicting opinions. The article analyzes the creative potential of various modern  AI  systems  and  qualitatively  assesses  the  risk  of  their  uncontrolled  use  in  creative areas of human activity.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-238-250

 


 

INHALED NON-CARCINOGENIC RISKS BASED ON EVOLUTIONARY MODELS FROM DISEASES OF THE DIGESTIVE SYSTEM OF THE POPULATION OF KRASNOYARSK

 

Liubov Kalimanova, Olga Taseiko

 

The  assessment  methodology  for  epidemiological  non-carcinogenic  risks  makes  it  possible  to evaluate  the  potential  consequences  for  human  health  of  different  variants  of  previous  and predicted  exposures  to  pollutants.  The  article  considers  the  influence  of  pollution  in  the  atmospheric air of Krasnoyarsk on the formation of mortality risks from diseases of the digestive system.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-251-257

 


 

CLASSIFICATION OF ACCIDENTAL OIL SPILLS IN OIL EXTRACTION AND ASSESSMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS

 

Hajar Ismayilova, Ulviyya Huseynova, Hikmat Babirov

 

The distribution and characteristics of the results of accidents in oil pumping and hydrocarbon transportation systems by degrees of severity are given in separate categories. A new methodical approach was proposed for the evaluation of the ecological and economic risk factor.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-258-261

 


 

RESERCH OF REDUCING THE RISKS THAT MAY ARISE DURING THE PREPARATION OF GAS TRANSPORTATION

 

Fikrat Seyfiyev, Sahib Abdurahimov, Irada Hajiyeva, Meherrem Harbizadeh, Vagif Rustamov, Ulfet Tagi-zade

 

In order to prevent risks that may occur due to hydrates and other reasons in the system during gas collection and preparation for transport, detailed information is provided due to the study results of methanol prepared on the basis of local chemical products and diethylene glycol, used as an absorbent in the gas-methanol-water system, in laboratory conditions. According to the results of the research conducted on the basis of samples taken from the fields, surfactants, i.e., methanol, used  to prevent the hydrate formation in production facilities, pipe- lines for the purpose of preventing accidents, failures, and the risk of environmental pollution there  are  many  possibilities  to  optimize  the  amount  of  reagents  required.  In  the  next  stage, methanol can be captured and reused through the diethylene glycol regeneration unit. By capturing methanol from the gas phase and regenerating both methanol itself and the diethylene glycol inhibitor, it is possible to protect the environment and minimize the risks that may occur in technological processes.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-262-266

 


 

ANALYSIS AND DAMAGE ASSESSMENT OF HAIL PROCESSES IN GEORGIA AND AZERBAIJAN USING RADAR DATA (ON THE EXAMPLE OF MAY 28 AND JULY 13, 2019)

 

Mikheil Pipia, Avtandil Amiranashvili, Nazibrola Beglarashvili, Elizbar Elizbarashvili, Otar Varazanashvili

 

The results of the analysis of radar studies of hail processes over the territories of Georgia and Azerbaijan on May 28 and July 13, 2019 are presented. Based on the values of the maximum size of hailstones in clouds, using the Zimenkov-Ivanov model, the expected sizes of hailstones falling  on  the  earth's  surface  are  calculated.  The  degree  of  damage  to vineyards,  wheat  and corn, depending on the size of the hail, was determined by summarizing the known data on damage to these crops at different kinetic energy of hail and data on the average kinetic energy of hail of different magnitudes. Based on this compilation, regression equations were obtained for  the  relationship  between  the  degree  of  damage  to  these  crops  and  the  size  of  hailstones, which have the form of a sixth degree of a polynomial. According to this equation, calculations were made of the degree of maximum damage to vineyards, wheat and corn along the trajecto- ries of hail clouds over the territories of Georgia and Azerbaijan.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-267-274

 


 

UP-TO-DATE DETAILED SEISMIC ZONING OF REGIONS IN KAZAKHSTAN (PGA CASE)

 

Natalya Silacheva

 

The results of the first project in Kazakhstan on the Detailed Seismic Zoning of regions on a new methodological basis are presented. The Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment is carried  out  for  the  territories  of  East  Kazakhstan  (since  2022  EKO  and  Abay),  Almaty  (since 2022 Almaty and Zhetysu) and Zhambyl   regions using a methodology consistent with  the main provisions of Eurocode 8 and updated compared to that used in maps of the recent General Seismic Zoning of Kazakhstan territory. Modern methods and tools of analysis were used, as  well  as  the  most  complete  and  up-to-date  information  available  for  the  territories  under consideration. The seismic source model included areal sources and active faults.   The developed maps are discussed and hazard curves and uniform hazard spectra for the main cities in the  considered  regions  are  presented.  The  obtained  results  are  generally  consistent  with  the General Seismic Zoning  but display  some differences in PGA distribution due to including active faults and a comprehensively revised catalogue. Zoning maps will be the basis for the development of new state building regulations of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-275-282

 


 

DIAGNOSTICS OF RISKY MULTIPHASE FLOW ZONES IN OIL PIPELINES

 

Gulnara Zeynalova,  Gafar Ismayilov

 

This article examines the properties and formation of free-flow areas in the compressed profile of indicative oil pipelines. The risks of the formation of multiphase flow zones in oil pipelines were investigated and a method for diagnosis was developed. Additionally, this article studies the issues related to the pre sence of free-flow zones formed within the stationary regimes of oil pipelines, as well as the identification of their coordinates. Case studies are drawn based on the hydraulic slope and the pressure balance and contingent upon the lay, which aim to account for

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-283-287

 


 

EQUATION OF STATE OF HYDROCARBONS FOR THE LIQUID PHASE

 

Vagif Hasanov, Nurmammad Mammadov, Jeyhun Naziyev, Malahat Mammadova, Adila Zeynalova

 

İt is necessary to construct equations of state that qualitatively and quantitatively accurately reflect  the  behavior  of  the  thermodynamic  surface  in  the  considered  range  of  parameters,  in order  to  compile  tables  of  the  thermodynamic  properties  of  liquids.  A  sufficient  amount  of high-precision experimental data on the P-V-T dependence is necessary to constructing such equations. Most of the equations are not suitable for extrapolation, they are valid in limited areas of state parameters. An equation of state with three coefficients is proposed to describe the  P-V-T  dependence  of  liquid  hydrocarbons  of  various  molecular  structures  (benzene,  n- octane, isooctane, octene-1).

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-288-295

 


 

GEODYNAMIC REGIME OF FORMATION OF THE MESO-CENOZOIC SEDIMENTARY COVER OF THE ABSHERON ARCHIPELAGO

 

Yelena Pogorelova, Murad Abdulla-zada, Allahverdi Tagiyev

 

The main goal of geodynamic analysis is to learn to perceive sedimentary basins as integral natural objects, to determine their genesis, structure and stages of evolution, classification of sedimentary basins and forecast of their oil and gas potential. It is well known that the changes that occur in the earth's crust are mainly the result of subcrustal processes and adjacent plate interaction. The type of the Earth's crust underlying the sedimentary basin determines the physical basis, stability, tectonic restructuring  and sedimentation conditions throughout the evolution of the basin. Geodynamic conditions of sedimentary cover formation in the region under consideration were studied on the basis of the principles of tectonic formation of the Caspian basin and the adjacent area, developed by Azerbaijani and foreign scientists.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-296-303

 


 

DETERMINATION OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE DEGREE ON MAGNETIC LEVITATION CORE INDUCTION

 

Orkhan Afandiyev, Aynura Allahverdiyeva

 

The issues on determining the degree of influence of temperature changes caused by climatic features of the area, internal heat generation during the operation of an electronic circuit and other  reasons  on  the  value  of  the  magnetic  induction  of  the  levitating  magnetic  core  are analyzed in the article. Based on the results of preliminary studies, the model of the Magnetic Levitation System (MLS), the dependence on the temperature of the magnetic induction on the levitating core was obtained. The  preliminary investigation results of the MLS show that the magnetic  induction  of  the  levitating  core  is  a  linear  monotonically  decreasing  function  of temperature. The aim of this issue is to study the effect of temperature on the nature of the power characteristics of the MLS, the temperature in the measuring chamber of which has a significant  effect, which  indicates   the violation of the levitation current stability  caused  by temperature  changes  in  the  magnetic  induction  of  the  levitating  magnetic  core  (which indicates the violation of the levitation current stability).

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-304-307

 


 

RISK ASSESSMENT STUDY OF KEY COMPONENTS OF THE DIGITAL ECONOMY

 

Laila Gazieva, Timur Aygumov, Alexander Natalson

 

This study provides a comprehensive risk assessment of key components of the digital economy to ensure sustainable growth and mitigate potential adverse impacts. The research methodology included a literature review, analysis of academic sources, data and economic indicators, case studies, and development of risk assessment models. The results of  the analysis confirm that  the digital economy provides significant opportunities for development and  progress in modern society. However, it also carries certain risks and challenges, such as cybersecurity, data privacy, ethical issues, artificial intelligence, and misinformation. These insights enable business leaders, governments and the public to prioritize risk management and develop strategies that advance the sustainable and responsible development of the digital economy. Based on this study, measures  can  be taken to improve cybersecurity, ensure data privacy, ethical use of artificial intelligence and counter disinformation, in  order to provide a favorable  and sustainable environment for the further development of the digital economy.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-308-312

 


 

OIL AND GAS PROSPECTS OF TECTONIC CRASHING ZONES OF THE KURA INTERMOUNTAIN DEPRESSION

 

Gultar Nasibova, Emil Ismayilzadeh, Shura Ganbarova, Mehriban Ismayilova

 

The article considers lithofacies and structural-tectonic conditions of oil and gas formation in the  Kura  depression.  In  addition,  the  formation  of  oil  and  gas  accumulation  zones  in  the crushing  nodes  in  the  Mesozoic deposits  was  determined  and  the role of  faults in their  formation was studied, tectonic crushing zones were found using seismically active zones in the- se  deposits,  the  issues  of  prospects  analysis  were  studied  and  the  issues  of  prospecting  and exploration were considered. Taking  into  consideration  that  the  tectonic  crushing  zones  are  formed  in  Mesozoic  deposits composed mainly of competence rocks, it can be predicted that oil and gas fields in these zones are associated mainly with Mesozoic age rocks. In the Middle Kura depression, the surface of the Mesozoic deposits lies at  a depth of up to 4-5 km, therefore it is considered favorable for exploration. Due to this, the oil and gas prospects of the tectonic crushing zones was studied in the Mesozoic deposits as a prospecting object of the Middle Kura depression.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-313-322

 


 

THE IMPACT AND PROSPECTS OF USING ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IN THE ECONOMY

 

Larisa Aguzarova, Fatima Aguzarova, Kamilla Tsallaeva

 

This paper discusses issues related to the development of technologies and the relationship of this process with economic processes. Due to the rapid digitalization, the importance and role of artificial intelligence are growing. At the same time there are many problems and they are considered in this paper: unemployment of technical workers, a security problem that is associated with the confidentiality, the existing neural networks cannot be suitable for use in all industries etc. When using the generalization method, the authors have made relevant conclusions  and  recommendations  for  using  Artificial  Intellect:  to  solve  the  following  universal tasks: automatic translation; getting business intelligence; recognition of visual signs; character recognition;  information extraction; understanding and analyzing texts; image  analysis; ensuring information security and protection against cyber-attacks; speech recognition; robot- ic tools for the implementation of tasks at different levels and in different fields.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-323-329

 


 

THE ROLE OF THE HUMAN FACTOR IN THE MARKET ECONOMY

 

Albina Berkaeva, Irina Yablochnikova, Georgi Kutsuri, Tengiz Tinikashvili, Ekaterina Stativa

 

One of the basic resources of economic growth is the human factor, the relevance of which in the modern economic system is actively increasing. This is primarily because every day many companies are becoming more and more aware of the importance of the considered category in any  business  for  efficient  and  successful  operation.  Indeed,  in  the  current  realities,  it  is  the human factor that is responsible for the well-being and success of enterprises due to the competence and professionalism of employees. In this regard, in our opinion, the main task of any management team is to find ways to manage the company's employees as efficiently as possible by creating favorable mutually beneficial conditions for both the labor power and the entire business as a whole.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-330-335

 


 

THE MAIN TRENDS IN THE LABOUR MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF THE ECONOMY DIGITALIZATION

 

Valentina Dzobelova, Sergey Bakunin, Vitaly Lukinov, Viktoria Erofeeva

 

The article considers the influence of the digital economy development on the labour market, identifying its  main  advantages and  disadvantages. The  increase  in the  unemployment  rate due to the disappearance of a number of obsolete professions, that have lost their relevance in the context of modern developing relations, can be attributed to the fundamental negative factors of the labour market digitalization. In addition, after analyzing the opinions of various domestic  and  foreign  experts,  it  is  concluded  that  it  is  impossible  until  2030  to  completely replace human labour with  robotics, despite the rapid development of information and  communication technologies.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-336-341

 


 

OPTIMIZATION OF THE COMPOSITION OF SPARE PARTS FOR THE AGING TYPE OBJECTS

 

Aleksandr Antonov, Aleksandr Murkin

 

The paper solves the problem of optimizing the composition of spare parts for objects of aging type. A model for calculating the profit from the operation of equipment with spare elements is proposed. The Kijima-Sumita model is used as a model to describe the process of exhaustion of the object's operability. The developed model is investigated on simulation data.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-342-348

 


 

TECHNOLOGIES OF INFORMATION SUPPORT OF TERRITORIAL SAFETY MANAGEMENT

 

Valeriy Nicheporchuk, Ulyana Postnikova

 

The paper presents approaches aimed at solving the problems of territorial administration related  to:  limited  availability  of  integrated  monitoring  data,  the  impossibility  of  reproducing risk calculations by independent groups of researchers; the general nature of recommendations on the composition and scope of preventive measures, formed based on the results of risk calculations and not taking into account the specifics of S-N-T systems; lack of indicators for assessing the impact on safety  of the implemented preventive measures; lack of  scientific  substantiation of management processes, the absence of generally accepted models for forecasting the  security  of  territories  for  a  long-term  period,  which  allow  more  systematic  planning  of strategic

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-349-355

 


 

EVALUATION OF THE INFLUENCE OF LONGITUDINAL OSCILLATIONS ON DYNAMIC RESISTANCE OF NON-UNIFORM CORES

 

Asim Imamaliyev

 

The relevance of the problem of calculating the vibrations of complex rod systems is due to the practical need  to improve the  technical characteristics of the designed  machines and  mechanisms and ensure their functioning under ever wider ranges of operational impacts, as well as to reduce the material consumption of machines and structures. To fully determine the strains and stresses that occur at any point in the system during vibrations, it is necessary to know the displacements at these points. This leads to the need to consider systems with an infinite number of degrees of freedom.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-356-359

 


 

ESG - CRITERIA AT THE PRESENT STAGE OF SOCIETY DEVELOPMENT

 

Alisa Olisaeva, Marina Galazova, Leyla Magomayeva, Anastasia Ledovskaya

 

The current challenge facing society and business is to study the  ESG agenda, implement it into operations and develop appropriate recommendations to promote ESG principles to improve the environment and well-being of the global community. In order to address inequality and stimulate economic growth, the UN adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development in 2015 and launched a plan to ensure sustainability for present and future generations, reduce poverty and improve the lives of people around the world.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-360-368

 


 

THEORETICAL AND CONCEPTUAL APPROACHES TO STUDYING THE NATURE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH

 

Alina Gudieva, Tatyana Sitokhova, Marianna Kelekhsaeva, Magomed Suleymanov, Kantemir Khachirov

 

The subject of this article is the study of the theoretical foundations of the phenomenon of economic growth. During the study, the authors chose a general retrospective methodology and predominantly historical analysis.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-369-380

 


 

DEVELOPMENT OF MOLECULAR GENETIC APPROACHES TO PREDICT THE OCCURANCE OF FOCI OF BACTERIAL DISEASES IN FOREST ECOSYSTEMS

 

Lyubov Ivashchenko, Stanislav Panteleev, Oleg Baranov

 

In the course of the study, specific primers were developed to identify 20 species of phytopathogenic bacteria from 12 genera associated with the occurrence of infectious diseases in seven forest-forming species of Belarus. The results showed that the developed oligonucleotides are specific for the 16S (mtDNA and cpDNA) and 23S rRNA genes of the studied phytopathogenic bacteria.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-381-386

 


 

MAIN TRENDS IN CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE HOLOCENE EPOCH OF THE ANTROPOGENIC PERIOD IN THE WORLD AND IN THE CAUCASUS

 

Arun Daukaev, Rustam Gakaev, Tumisha Bachaeva

 

The article is devoted to the problem of climate change on Earth, and in particular in the Caucasus. The main trends in climate change are traced during the Holocene epoch of the Quaternary period. Attention is focused on the most noticeable periods of cooling and warming - the medieval warming period, the Little Ice Age, the newest warming period, which began at the end of the 19th century. The issue of global warming is also touched upon.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-387-390

 


 

THE ESTIMATED REASON FOR THE LOW EFFICIENCY OF HYDROCYCLONES IN PETROLEUM INDUSTRY

 

Gafar Ismayilov, Amrah Gulubayli, Samir Musayev, Shafa Musayeva

 

In the paper, according to the multiphase technology, the reason for the low efficiency of hydrocyclones  for  multiphase  disperse  systems  was  analyzed.  The  condition  of  equality  of  the shear  and  centrifugal  forces  during  the  operation  of  the  hydrocyclone  is  shown.  It  has been established that, based on the correct choice of technological parameters, it is possible to avoid the negative effect of the shear force in cylindrical flows on the operation of hydrocyclones.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-391-395

 


 

THE PROBLEM OF POVERTY IN THE MODERN WORLD IN THE CONTEXT OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

 

Ayna Salamova, Saleh  Khodjaliev, Sergey Dokholyan

 

Described figures from official statistics: towards the present time, approximately 40% of us live below this poverty line. It created the choice of topic and its relevance. To study this problem  in  detail,  it  is  necessary  to  conduct  an  in-depth  scientific  study,  a  thorough  theoretical analysis and the development of practical guidelines based on the presented basis. These guide- lines  could  be  used  to  develop  and  implement  an  effective  economic  and  social  policy  that would undoubtedly be aimed at reducing poverty to the lowest level.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-396-403

 


 

ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE PRECIPITATION REGIME IN THE SOUTHERN SLOPE OF THE GREATER CAUCASIAN PROVINCE

 

Sevinj Rzaeva, Jamal Guseynov, Allahverdi Tagiyev

 

The  impact  of  global  climate  changes  on  the  perennial  precipitation  regime  in  the  southern part of the Greater Caucasus region was studied. In the analysis, the precipitation observation data  of 8  meteorological  stations  during  the  years  1991-2020  were  used.  Multi-year  (1991- 2020) various indicators of precipitation were compared with the base quantities. In the study, the multi-year period was considered for 2 periods (1991-2005, 2006-2020) and the monthly, seasonal and annual trends of precipitation were compared. The study found that the multi- year average temperature in the province for the last 30 years was 11-140C in the lowlands and 6-70C in the mid-mountains.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-404-410

 


 

FORECASTING OF THE PROBABILITY OF UNNATURAL DESTRUCTIVE EVENTS OCCURRENCE AT REFINERY COMPLEXES

 

Oksana Morozova, Stanislav Butuzov, Valery Artyukhin

 

The  paper  proposes  some  approaches  to  building  a  model  for  predicting  the  probability  of emergency situations at the enterprises of the oil refining complex in modern conditions. The approach is based on modeling using the binomial distribution. The initial data of the model are open data on the occurrence of emergencies on the territory of the Russian Federation for the period 2022–2023.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-411-416

 


 

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY OF ECOSYSTEMS

 

Magomed Suleymanov, Evgeniya Atamas, Aliheydar Shahmarov

 

Attempts to undermine the significance of the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development adopted in 2015 under the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic quickly gave way to the importance of uniting efforts aimed at achieving the 17 Goals that are the basis of governance (SDGs). Efforts at many levels - from states and their regional entities to municipalities, corporations, or ultimately the level of specific people in society by and large. Attention to sustainable development issues is also growing against the backdrop of an obvious deterioration in the climate situation and the need to create energy security.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-417-421

 


 

RISK ASSESSMENT IN SUBSEA PIPELINES FOR THE CASPIAN SEA CONDITIONS

 

Ramiz Ismayilov, Rugiya Asgerova, Ismayil Ismayilov, Turkan Guliyeva

 

The article presents the results of studies conducted on the analysis of risks in the underwater pipelines of the Azerbaijan sector of the Caspian Sea. For the study, the results of long-term observations of the state of the state of underwater pipelines and the opinions of experts in this field were collected. Based on the analysis of these data, the most characteristic situations were identified that, to one degree or another, led to the loss of pipeline performance and the need for repair and  restoration work.  It was found that  the main hazards for subsea pipelines in  the Caspian Sea are external and internal corrosion. Pipelines floating, damage at pipe junctions, vibrations, damage from falling foreign objects, and wave impacts in the coastal strip.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-422-427

 


 

THE LABOR CONTRIBUTION OF THE DEPORTED PEOPLES TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ECONOMY OF CENTRAL ASIA IN 1940-1950

 

Sapiyat Tsutsulaeva

 

The deportation of Chechens and  Ingush  were a repression  with  social and  economic consequences for the deportees themselves. This forced displacement of Kazakhstanis and living in difficult conditions in new settlements caused great problems and difficulties for them, as well as for the economy of Kazakhstan. Their forced displacement and living in difficult conditions made it possible to solve many problems with economic development at all.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-428-433

 


 

ECONOMIC SECURITY IN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES: CHALLENGES, SOLUTIONS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS

 

Rizvan Aliev, Tamerlan Magomaev, Apti Mentsiev

 

Addressing the risk of the European population trap demands responsible population control and sustainable resource management. The research emphasizes the interconnectedness of economic and national security, advocating for a holistic approach that integrates policies to foster economic resilience, promote social inclusion, and safeguard national interests. Policymakers must consider these multifaceted dimensions to ensure sustainable economic security and prosperity in the face of global challenges.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-434-440

 


 

DEVELOPMENT OF ACHIMOV DEPOSITS SEDIMENTATION MODEL OF ONE OF THE WEST SIBERIAN OIL AND GAS PROVINCE FIELDS

 

Yury Nefedov, Danila Gribanov, Emil Gasimov, Dmitry Peskov, Gao Han, Nikita Vostrikov, Shafagat Pashayeva

 

The results obtained characterize the expected sediment geometry, lithology distribution due to  sea  level  changes,  paleogeography,  paleoclimate,  tectonics  and  sediment  input  rates.  The results  allow  the  evaluation  of  different  options  and  enable  us  to  predict  the  distribution  of prospective oil and gas bearing sediments in areas where no wells have been drilled. As a result, a sedimentation model was obtained, which reflects the formation of the elements of the sedimentation system of the study area. According to the sedimentation model, the main facies zones of the turbidite sediments under consideration are identified.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-441-448

 


 

DIAGNOSIS OF THE RISK OF OIL LEAKS FROM PIPELINES

 

Hajar Ismayilova, Fidan Ismayilova, Mansur Shahlarly

 

The research paper studies the issue of detecting the location and amount of hydrocarbon losses in cases of accident-damage (spill), which occur during the transportation of oil and oil products via the technological and main pipes. The grapho-analytical method has been introduced and tested in order to determine a location and degree of the leakage following the change in working parameters.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-449-455

 


 

NPP MAINTENANCE AND REPAIR RISK MANAGEMENT: THE CASE OF RUSSIA

 

Mariia Volos, Evgenii Polev

 

The process efficiency indicators as indicators of risk tolerance are considered. An effectiveness assessment of the risk management system of the maintenance and repair process is presented. The key shortcomings are identified. The line of further research on shortcomings exclusion is formulated.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-456-464

 


 

MODERN TEACHING TRENDS IN MARITIME ENGLISH AS A GLOBAL INSTRUMENT IN SPREADING OF INDIVISIBLE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT IN MARITIME INDUSTRY

 

Gulchohra Aliyeva

 

The obvious conclusion by examining the proceedings of the Sub-Committee on the International Maritime English Conference (IMEC) is that the English language is rapidly gaining ground on effective delivering of lectures within the maritime establishments because its com- position,  flexibility,  vocabulary  and  pragmatics  completely  makes  it  to  become  the  “Lingua Franca” of Maritime English.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-465-471

 


 

SPECIAL TAX REGIMES AS A TOOL FOR ENSURING ECONOMIC SECURITY

 

Larisa Aguzarova, Fatima Aguzarova

 

The subject of this article is the study of special tax regimes as a tool for ensuring economic security.  In  the  course  of  scientific  research,  the  authors  used  general  scientific  methods. Among them: improvement of tax legislation in terms of certain elements of the regimes under consideration and  conditions  for  their  application;  exemption  from  tax  payments  of  newly created  business  entities  until  they  receive  profits;  creation  of  comfortable  conditions  with counterparties. The authors emphasize that the main purpose of  applying the regimes is the strengthening and further development of business entities, as well as ensuring economic security.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-472-478

 


 

USE OF SECONDARY ENERGY RESOURCES OF MODULAR POWER PLANTS WITH A GAS ENGINE AND REDUCTION OF HARMFUL EMISSIONS

 

Jamala Mamedova

 

The paper considers the use of exhaust gas heat in modular power plants. In this regard, fuel consumption at power plants will decrease, efficiency of power plant will increase the emission of harmful gases into the atmosphere and environmental burden will reduce.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-479-482

 


 

AEROSPACE MONITORING OF SEA OIL POLLUTION BASED ON TECHNOLOGIES OF COGNITIVE AND EXPERT SYSTEMS

 

Nazif Sattarov

 

The development of new technologies and methodologies that provide information support for ecological  observations  (in  particular,  environmental  audit  and  risk  analysis),  is  of  decisive importance.  In  this  regard,  remote  sensing  from  orbiters  exemplifies  a  powerful  method  of planetary exploration. Onboard sensors provide unique views of the Earth's surface combined with a large range. On the base of the above-mentioned facts, this paper is aimed at discussing several important features of aerospace monitoring of the oil pollution of the Caspian Sea surface using technologies of cognitive and expert systems.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-483-488

 


 

MONITORING OF INDIVIDUAL SEISMIC RISK AT ALL STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT OF A POSSIBLE EARTHQUAKE SOURCE

 

Gennady Nigmetov,  Andrei  Savinov,  Temir Nigmetov

 

The effectiveness of measures on seismic safety of the population will depend on how correctly the possible earthquake source and seismic hazard zones, in which destructive seismic impact is expected, seismic resistance of buildings in these hazard  zones, the number of population falling into the seismic zone, possible consequences have been determined. Knowing the possible consequences, it is easy to determine the necessary forces and means to prevent risks and rescue the population.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-489-499

 


 

ASSESSMENT OF THE WATER BALANCE OF THE TERRITORY AND RİVERS WATER RESOURCES USING A NEW OPERATIONAL- INTERACTIVE METHOD

 

Rza Makhmudov, Vugar Aliyev, Movlud Teymurov, Emil Gafarov

 

A  new  method  (CWBM)  is  proposed  for  calculating  the  water  balance  of  the  territory  and water  resources  of  rivers.  CWBM  was  developed  on  the  basis  of  reliable  scientific  sources (satellite   images,   GIS-technologies,   modern   scientific  approaches,   advanced   hydrological models).  Comparison  of  the  actual  and  calculated  with  CWBM  method  flow  for  113  river basins of Azerbaijan shows that the error between them was up to 10% for 92 and 10-15% for 21 rivers.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-500-509

 


 

CONSTRUCTION OF A MULTI-CONNECTED CONTROL SYSTEM FOR SAFE COKE PRODUCTION

 

Aygun Safarova, Elchin Melikov, Tamella Magerramova

 

The  risks  that  may  arise  from  all  waste  types  in  production  objects  are  identified  and controlled.  According  to  the  oil  company's  policy,  reducing  the  impact  of  waste  on  the environment  determines  its  recycling.  In  the  technological  processes  course,  environmental protection and safety personnel constantly monitor installation for gas safety, inspect the air and toxic environment, and ensure gas safety at work. When the raw material is heated to the required temperature in the furnace, the gas fuel supplied to the furnace creates a fire hazard. Technically, oil products coking makes it possible to cost-effectively and expediently increase and improve oil refining.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-510-517

 


 

DETERMINATION OF DRINKING WATER RESOURCES IN THE KARABAKH PLAIN (AGHDAM REGION): THE ROLE OF EXPLORATION AND RESEARCH

 

Vagif Karimov, Mehriban Ismailova, Jafar Sharifov, Yuri Nefedov

 

The  article  uses  data  obtained  during  exploratory  drilling.  By  conducting  comprehensive studies and analyzing available literary sources, the characteristics of the hydrogeological situation associated with the occurrence of groundwater and water strikes were clarified. Also, the  hydrological  conditions  in  the  area  where  the  research  was  conducted  were  studied  and analyzed. The conditions of groundwater formation, chemical composition, mineralization and other indicators of groundwater are studied, the areas of their distribution are determined, and recommendations are given for their rational use for irrigation and other purposes in agriculture and to provide the need for fresh water in the liberated Aghdam region.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-518-525

 


 

DATA-DRIVEN DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION: CHALLENGES AND STRATEGIES FOR EFFECTIVE BIG DATA MANAGEMENT

 

Adam Mentsiev, Timur Aygumov, Elmira Amirova

 

The study is devoted to the study and analysis of the risks associated with managing big data during  the  period  of  digital  transformation  of  organizations.  The  purpose  of  the  work  is  to identify the problems and risks that organizations face when integrating and using big data in an effort to remain competitive and successful in today's economic realities. The study uses a mixed  approach  to  data  analysis,  which  allows  a  comprehensive  study  of  the  issues  of  data management in the process of digital transformation. In the course of the work, the main problems and risks that organizations face when working with big data are identified. These risks include  data  governance  and  privacy,  data  security,  data  integration  and  interoperability, scalability  and  infrastructure,  data quality  and  integrity, and employee skill and  experience issues. The study proposes strategies to address these challenges, including developing a comprehensive data governance framework, investing in data security, and using advanced analytics and artificial intelligence.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-526-531

 


 

PORTABLE PROPERTIES OF THE RESERVOIR WATERS USED IN POWER SYSTEM

 

Vagif Hasanov, Jeyhun Naziyev, Leyla Hasanova, Aqil Omarov, İrada Aliyeva, Gulshan Akhundova

 

In comparison with the sea shipping, systematic pollution of the sea by oil seems insignificant under oil-and-gas field engineering. Measurements of the viscosity of reservoir waters by re- mote capillary in the temperature interval of (298.15 to 598.15) ºK and the pressure of (0.1 to 40) MPa are reported. The relative uncertainty in the viscosity does not exceed ± 1.8 ℅. An equation describing viscosity of the studied reservoir waters and the dependence with the mineralization, pressure and temperatures is given.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-532-538

 


 

SIMULATION MODELING AND MAPPING OF CATASTROPHIC FLOODS IN POORLY STUDIED AREAS FOR EMERGENCY RISK MANAGEMENT

 

Irina Oltyan, Elena Arefyeva, Mikhail Bolgov, Nikita Oltyan

 

Method  presented  in  the  article  for  modeling  parameters  of  catastrophic  floods,  such  as  the water  level  of  the  given  probability  of  exceedance  and  depth  of  corresponding  probability  of exceedance, as well as the flooding area for unexplored territories, is  based on the use of the digital  relief  model  approach,  construction  of  hydrographic  network  in  the  form  of  oriented graph  characterizing  the  direction  of  water  flow,  invoking  generalized  regime  hydrological information in the form of estimated parameters  maps of the maximum flow, and the use of virtual gauging stations, as information reference points for calculations.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-539-551

 


 

FIBER-OPTIC SENSOR FOR FUNCTIONAL SECURITY OF THE OBJECT PERIMETER PROTECTION SYSTEM

 

Tofig Mansurov, Elnur Mansurov, Irina Yablochnikova, Gulnar Gurbanova, Rahman Mammadov

 

Experimental studies have been carried out to determine the susceptibility of various types of optical fiber to macrobending, the dependence of the attenuation of the optical radiation signal on the macrobending radius, the length of the macrobending arc, and the mass of the unauthorized access object.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-552-559

 


 

HIGH-PRECISION GROUND-BASED PHOTOMETRIC MONITORING METHOD FOR VALIDATING SATELLITE MONITORING OF ASSOCIATED HYDROCARBON GAS BURNING

 

Yegana Aliyeva,  Kifayat Mammadova, Matanat Hasanguliyeva

 

The  conducted  research  allowed  to  identify  redundancy  in  correction  procedures  in  known three-wave  solar  photometers.  Two  new  methods  for  constructing  compensated  photometers are proposed. In the proposed constructions, the correction procedure is limited to the calculation and installation of one correction factor.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-560-564

 


 

SOME ASPECTS OF OPERATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT IN OIL AND GAS FIELD PIPELINES

 

Gafar Ismayilov, Elman Iskandarov, Zivar Farzalizade, Rabiya Abishova

 

Field technological pipelines - capital engineering structures designed for long-term operation and  intended  for  the  uninterrupted  transport  of  well  products  (oil,  gas,  condensates,  water and their mixtures) to the treatment complex. Negative risk events accompanying the operation of field process pipelines, including failure, total or partial loss of serviceability may occur during  operation  and  are  related  to  several  factors.  This  paper  outlines  the  risk  factors,  the main adverse impacts and threats to oil and gas field pipelines, and the rules for operational risk mitigation for oil and gas field pipelines.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-565-568

 


 

GLOBAL RISKS OF BIOLOGICAL INVASIONS OF PHYTOPATHOGENIC ORGANISMS AND IMPROVEMENT OF THE QUARANTINE MONITORING SYSTEM USING COMPUTER MODELING

 

Vyachåslav Zviagintsev, Anna Prokhîrîva, Tatiana Surina, Daria Belomesyeva

 

As a result of assessing the distribution of adventitious species of phytopathogens on the territory of Belarus, a trend of increasing the number of recorded invasions was identified. Every year, an average of 3-4 new pathogens of infectious diseases of woody plants are identified in forests and gardens, and over the past 25 years, at least 57 new types of phytopathogens have been recorded. Many of the newly identified species have already passed the stage of acclimatization,  and  some  have  a  significant  impact  on  the  sanitary  condition  of  forests  and  parks, causing significant damage.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-569-581

 


 

THE USE OF NATURAL FILTRATION SORBENTS TO SOLVE THE SAFETY PROBLEMS OF INDUSTRIAL POLLUTION FACILITIES

 

Peter Belousov, Anastasia Rumyantseva, Ksenia Kim, Boris Pokidko, Vitaliy Milyutin, Yulia Izosimova, Ekaterina Tyupina

 

This work is devoted to the review of mineral and organic natural sorbents for the purpose of purification of polluted waters of industrial enterprises. Structural features, differences in the composition and properties of the most common natural sorbents, features of their application and sorption mechanisms of pollutants are shown. The main mechanisms of sorption for clay minerals and zeolite is ion exchange; for siliceous rocks such as diatomite, tripoli and gaize - physical adsorption on the surface of pores and reaction with silonol groups. Organic natural sorbents have both mechanisms of complex formation and physical adsorption, as well as ion exchange.   It is shown that the creation of multicomponent granular permeable granules can significantly increase the efficiency of natural sorbents and will make their use more accessible and improve the safety of the industrial sector and nuclear legacy facilities.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-582-587

 


 

ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS ASSESSMENT OF COASTAL AREA IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN BALTIC SEA TO OIL POLLUTION

 

Elena Krek, Alexander Krek, Vadim Sivkov, Zhanna Stont

 

A low probability of oil pollution of coasts from two main potential sources located in the waters of Kaliningrad Region (Russian Federation) in the Baltic Sea is shown  based on the results of modelling using Seatrack Web (SMHI, HELCOM). The most threatened areas of the coastal zone and coast, in the middle part of the Curonian Spit – UNESCO World Heritage site, as well as the distal part of the Vistula Spit and on the entire western coast of the Sambia Peninsula, were identified.

 

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-588-591

 


 

APPLICATION OF A RANK FUZZY REGRESSION MODEL TO PREDICT THE TECHNICAL CONDITION OF WELL PIPES

 

Ibrahim Habibov, Oleg Dyshin, Gulnara Feyziyeva, Irada Ahmadova, Zohra Garayeva

 

Oil  and  gas  pipes  used  in  well  operations  are  undergo  to  aggressive  environments.  In  this case, corrosion wear of the thickness of their walls occurs, which leads to various difficulties. In order to assess the technical condition of well pipes, geophysical methods are used, one of which is the electromagnetic inspection method.  The paper proposes a method for predicting the maximum loss of pipe thickness based on the results of electromagnetic inspection by the step values of the depth of immersion of the lower part of the pipe into the well. Based on the use of fuzzy regression with fuzzy input/fuzzy output, a method for assessing the level of impact of the main formation parameters on the technical condition of well pipes is proposed.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-592-601

 


 

GEOCHEMICAL SOUNDING OF TECTONIC FAULTS MEASUREMENT-BASED EXHALATION OF SOIL RADON

 

Yelizaveta Yessenzhigitova, Abdulaziz Abdullaev, Maksim Markin, Vladimir Borisov, Aset Muhamadiev

 

The scientific and methodological issues of geochemical sounding and localization of tectonic fault activity based on profile measurements of exhalation (volumetric activity) of soil radon (Rn 222),as well as emanation surveys on the territory of Ust-Kamenogorsk, carried out here in 2021-2023 in connection with seismic micro zoning (SMR) are outlined. It has been established that those geochemical methods of deep sounding of tectonic faults allow to reliably clarify the location and determine the activity of tectonic faults in the study area and provide new materials for seismic zoning of critical objects and determining seismic risk factors.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-602-611

 


 

INVESTIGATION OF PARTICLES EMISSIONS WHEN USING VARIOUS ELECTRODES FOR UNDERWATER WELDING

 

Konstantin Kirichenko,, Vladimir Chernousov, Anton Pogodaev, Alexander Gridasov, Yuri Kalinin, Igor Vakhniuk, Alexey Kholodov,  Sergei Parshin, Kirill Golokhvast

 

The article is devoted  to the study  of the mass and  quantitative concentration of suspended particles during underwater welding for sea water from the Ajax Bay (Sea of Japan) using two technological modes with special electrodes for welding and cutting metal. For both processes, the  predominance  of  the  PM0.3  fraction  in  emissions  of  the  smallest  particles  compared  to particles of larger fractions was revealed. The amount of suspended particles when using electrodes for metal cutting is several times higher compared to electrodes for underwater welding. The mass concentration of PM10 particles does not exceed the threshold MPC values established in the Russian Federation, Belarus and the USA.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-612-618

 


 

EXAMINATION OF THE PRESCRIPTION OF A DOCUMENT AS A WAY TO IDENTIFY MALFEASANCE

 

Dmitriy Mokhorov, Dmitriy Anisimov, Vladimir Kochemirovsky

 

The article discusses the signs of artificial and natural aging of documents under the influence of  temperature  and  humidity  changes.  It  is  shown  that  the  use  of  technologies  for  artificial aging of documents can create risks of concealing malfeasance, leading to economic, technological damage and health. Methods for detecting signs of artificial aging and the possibility of using physicochemical methods of analysis to detect falsification are discussed.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-619-631

 


 

DESIGN AND APPLICATION OF NANOCOMPOSITE BASED ON CLAY MINERAL (GLAUCONITE) AS ECO-FRIENDLY FERTILISER FOR AGRICULTURE

 

Maxim Rudmin, Boris Makarov, Prokopiy Maximov, Evan Dasi

 

This study explores constructing and using nanocomposite fertilisers from glauconite amalgamated with a carbamide solution-gel. The ensuing nanocomposite exhibits enhanced intercalation between ammonium and glauconite, as substantiated by extensive analyses using techniques  such  as  XRD,  TEM,  FTIR,  TG-DSC,  SEM-EDS,  Brunauer–Emmett–Teller  (BET) analysis, soil leaching experiments, lab and field agricultural tests.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-632-644

 


 

METHODOLOGY OF RISK ASSESSMENT OF FORENSIC TECHNICAL EXPERTISE IN RECOGNIZING THE AUTHENTICITY OF AN ELECTRONIC DIGITAL SIGNATURE

 

Pavel Menshikov, Alex Tsirdava

 

The article discusses the issues of using an electronic digital signature as enhanced authentication  of  the  signature  owner,  as  well  as  preserving  the  integrity  of  the  document  content. Particular  attention  is  paid  to  the  issues  of  differences  in  the  types  of  electronic  signatures (ES). ES has long been part of the usual electronic document flow, it is used in the banking sector.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-645-647

 


 

NATURAL RESOURCE POTENTIAL OF MOUNTAIN LANDSCAPES OF THE CHECHEN REPUBLIC FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF REGENERATIVE ANIMAL HUSBANDRY

 

Zagir Ataev, Rashiya Bekmurzaeva

 

The article discusses the regional features of the natural components and landscape structure of the Makazhoy basin as a natural resource potential for the potential development of regenerative animal husbandry in the mountainous part of the Chechen Republic.

 

 .

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-648-655

 


 

APPLICATION OF UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLES TO OBTAIN MORPHOMETRIC CHARACTERISTICS OF LANDSLIDES

 

Ulzhan Aldabergen, Victor Blagoveshchensky, Sandugash Ranova, Aidana Kamalbekova

 

The  article  deals  with  the  use  of  DJI  Phantom  4  RTK  unmanned  aerial  vehicle  to  obtain morphometric characteristics of the landslide that occurred on May 15 in Tekeli town. A 5- year-old child died as a result of the landslide. During the survey, the site was surveyed using a  DJI  Phantom  4  RTK  quadcopter.  On  the  basis  of  the  obtained  aerial  photographs,  the following were built: a 3D digital elevation model, an orthophoto of the terrain, longitudinal and  transverse  profiles  of  the  landslide  area  and  the  adjacent  slope  using  special  software Agisoft Metashape Professional.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-656-662

 


 

RISK ASSESSMENT OF THE NEGATIVE IMPACT ON HUMAN HEALTH OF ELEMENTAL CONTAMINANTS IN BROWN ALGAE (Laminariaceae) AND PRODUCTS BASED ON THEM

 

Viktor Shchukin, Elena Khorolskaya, Nataliya Kuz'mina

 

The content of elements Al, As (inorganic form), Cd, Cr, Co, Cu, Fe, Hg, I, Mn, Mo, Ni, Se, Pb, Sr, V, Zn in Laminariae thalli was measured by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Based on obtained data, the non-carcinogenic risks of the analyzed elements on human health where assessed when they enter the body together with a therapeutic dose of medicinal native products based on Laminariae thalli. It was found that the total hazard index at the 95th  percentile concentrations level is 1.44. The maximum contribution to the hazard index is made attributed to iodine (HQ95%=1.37).

 

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-663-669

 


 

ON THE INFLUENCE OF SEISMIC INTENSITY IN A ROCK MASS IN THE DESIGN OF TRANSPORT TUNNELS

 

Mikhail Lebedev, Yuriy Isaev, Kirill Dorokhin, Àlexey Malovichko, Ruslan Dyagilev, Mikhail Pyatunin

 

The results of experiments on simultaneous recording of seismic signals from various sources on the Earth surface and at a depth of up to 250 m are stated. The peculiarities of change with depth of the spectral composition of teleseismic earthquake and microseismic oscillations have been studied, which testify in favour of a significant decrease in the level of seismic effects on underground structures in a wide range of frequencies in relation to buildings and structures on the daylight surface.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-670-677

 


 

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERN ECONOMY

 

Alisa Olisaeva, Marina Galazova, Leyla Baysultanova

 

The importance of solving the problem of food security and healthy nutrition is emphasized. In the course of scientific research, general and special methods of scientific knowledge were ap- plied: analysis,  synthesis and  comparison, as well as statistical data analysis and  visualization.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-678-686

 


 

INFLUENCE OF THE ENVIRONMENT ON THE DEPORTED (BY THE EXAMPLE OF THE CHECHEN PEOPLE)

 

Sapiyat Tsutsulaeva

 

When Chechens were forced to abandon the land and move into unfamiliar regions, they faced changes in climate conditions, natural resources and habitats.  The situation was similar for people who left them from their homeland as well as for agriculture and livestock.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-687-694

 


 

ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

 

Magomed Suleymanov, Aminat Huazheva, Elman Akhyadov

 

In the course of the analysis of foreign experience, it was revealed that in countries with the largest volumes of greenhouse gas emissions, decarbonization tools are actively used, mainly emission  quota  systems,  carbon  taxes,  technical  standards,  and  bans  on  the  sale  of  carbon- intensive products. A distinctive feature of the climate regulation system being developed in Russia is the desire to take into account the assimilation potential of ecosystems. It has been determined that the main problem with the use of these tools is their lack of consistency: the start of their work is scheduled for almost the same time, while their effectiveness depends on the results of each other's work.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-695-702

 


 

ANALYSIS OF THE USE OF COATED PIPES IN MARINE VESSELS

 

Vagif  Gasanov, Elvin Ibragimli

 

The information obtained through Arduino microcontroller is described in graphical dependencies in real-time mode of the result. When the crack is detected in the pipe, the maximum point of the recorded signal indicates on the diagram the part where the crack exists. Other- wise, the signal is described in the form of a straight line and indicates that no crack is found. The operator is able to determine any crack based on the signal recorded on the monitor. Due to the current leakage in the point of any crack the signal is transmitted to the Arduino microcontroller and, then, to the software. Based on the information received, the coordinate of the crack is found. So, since we obtain the information about the instantaneous displacement of the electrode with the encoder, we determine the coordinate of the crack according to the maximum value of the current leakage based on the diagram obtained.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-703-707

 


 

NEWEST TRENDS IN INTERDISCIPLINARY RISK-BASED RESEARCH AND GOVERNANCE OF CRITICAL AND STRATEGIC INFRASTRUCTURES

Sviatoslav Timashev

This paper is a condensed version of the keynote lecture presented at the opening of the
fifth Eurasian conference on Risk in Baku, Azerbaijan, October 17 2023. It is mostly based on results of the content analysis of 1500+ peer reviewed papers related to reliability, resilience, risk and safety of infrastructure systems published over the last 25 years, provided by renowned international specialists in these topics.

 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2023-575-708-727

 

 

       

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Safety Research :

 

 

Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality:

 

 

Statistic, Probability and Uncertainty :