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This special issue of the journal “Reliability: Theory and Applications” contains quality articles on innovative approaches to risk minimization. We would like to express our gratitude to all the participants of the RISK-2022 Conference for the submitted articles and the reviewers for their effective work in evaluating the submitted materials. We sincerely appreciate their excellent timely responses. The invited editors are also very grateful to the secretary, Doctor of Sci., Alexander Bochkov, for his constant support and constructiveness in the process of reviewing and drafting the proposal of the special issue. We hope that this special issue will make a significant contribution to improving the scientific field of assessment, analysis and management of natural and man-made risks.
Prof. Dr. Vugar Aliyev,
THE FINAL DECISION THIRD EURASIAN CONFERENCE AND SYMPOSIUM RISK-2022
Enrico Zio, Vugar Aliyev
Vladimir Rykov, Mais Farkhadov, Olga Kochueva, Elvira Zaripova
The aim of our research is to construct a risk tree, determine the main risks characteristics, find the most dangerous paths of the risk scenario development with respect to maximization of the failure probability criterion and analyze the sensitivity of results with respect to the shape of system components lifetime distributions and coefficient of variation. Our investigation is based on an example of the automated system for remote monitoring of underwater sections Dzhubga-Lazarevskoye-Sochi gas pipeline.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-31-36
TECHNICAL ASSET MANAGEMENT FOR RAILWAY TRANSPORT BASED ON RISK ASSESSMENT
Igor Shubinskiy
In the conditions of the stagnation of the global economy, the issues of finding the optimal strategy that would allow taking into account the balance of interests between costs, opportunities, performance of the company's technical assets and risks come to the forefront of the company's management. To this end, the URRAN system has been created, operated and developed in the Russian railway transport -a system for managing the reliability, safety, and resources of transport facilities based on risk assessment. Within the framework of this system, the tasks of operational collection, processing and analysis of the current state of reliability and safety of transport facilities, the activities of structural units are solved on the basis of risk assessment of maintenance management, assignments of major repairs, modernization and modification of transport facilities. The reliability and safety of transport facilities are managed within the framework of Big Data using artificial intelligence methods. Fire safety management is carried out using an automated fire risk management system, which is part of the URRAN system. It allows, based on the results of the fire risk forecast, to make a decision on the need for repair, replacement or maintenance of transport facilities and their fire safety system.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-37-48
Anna Bushinskaya, Sviatoslav Timashev
The paper presents a method for estimating the population entropy, which assesses the impact of an increase in the intensity of mortality (caused by negative environmental factors or sudden death of people in a man-made accident or catastrophe) on the average life expectancy (ALE) at birth. The method is based on the use of the Gompertz-Makeham law.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-49-62
EXPERIMENTAL STUDIES OF SEISMIC RESISTANCE OF TRANSLUCENT FACADE STRUCTURES
Arkadiy Granovskiy, Alexandra Demina
The results of experimental studies on the assessment of seismic resistance of hinged facade translucent systems, glass windows and glass panels are presented. The tests were carried out on special stands. When assessing the seismic resistance of facade translucent systems, a two-component pendulum-type vibration platform was used. During dynamic tests of glass windows and glass panels, a stand was used, for the excitation of vibrations of which a system consisting of dynamic hydraulic jacks was used. During the tests, the amplitude-frequency characteristics of dynamic effects varied in the range from 1.0 to 25.0 Hz with the amplitude of vibrations of the vibration platform up to 70 mm in the horizontal direction and 12.8 mm in the vertical direction. The values of accelerations of the vibration platform and dynamic jacks at the specified amplitude-frequency characteristics varied in the range from 0.2 to 5.0 m/s2 in the horizontal direction and from 0.1 to 2.0 m/s2 in the vertical direction. The behavior of glass panels under dynamic impact is modeled. It has been established that the use of glass partitions wall made of tempered Triplex glass with a thickness of at least t = 18 mm using a strengthening film of the TROSIFOL brand makes it possible to exclude the collapse of the structure of glass panels during the destruction of glass. The analysis of the results of experimental studies on the assessment of seismic resistance and injury safety of glass panels under dynamic loads simulating seismic impacts with an intensity of 7-9 points on the MSK-64 scale is carried out. The necessity of developing special regulatory documents is indicated.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-63-70
FORECAST OF NATURAL EMERGENCY SITUATIONS WITH MODERN METHODS
Valery Akimov, Maxim Bedilo, Olga Derendiaeva, Ekaterina Ivanova, Irina Oltyan
The article discusses the verbal and mathematical base for the forecast modeling of the most catastrophic natural emergencies, the sources of which are: hazardous hydrological phenomena; hazardous meteorological phenomena; hazardous geophysical phenomena; large natural fires.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-71-77
ELECTRODRILLING AND NEW PROSPECTS IN THE OIL & GAS WELL CONSTRUCTION RISK REDUCTION
Mikhail Gelfgat, Alexander Geraskin, Oleg Perelman, Alexander Fadeykin
Electrodrilling technology represents an alternative to commonly used hydraulic downhole motors. Drill bit driving with the advanced permanent magnet motor (PMM) provide wide range of rpm and constant torque, the ideal parameters for rock destruction. Most importantly, these parameters are not dependent on the type and amount of the agent pumping into the borehole for pressure balance and bottomhole cleaning. The additional advantage is high-speed communication capability between the bottomhole and surface, because of power cable line installed in the drill string. This paper purpose is to show that such drilling system can provide more reliable technology for operation in complicated geological conditions with high risk of problems, such as formation fluid influx, mud losses, borehole walls instability etc. The most critical components of electrodrilling technology are connections of power cable. Paper presented recently completed modeling of connections, which proof potential of electrodrilling for wells construction. The reliability of electrical drive using PMM is proven by vast worldwide experience of the ESP with PMM application. On the top of that electrodrilling technology is naturally compatible with the managed pressure drilling methods, known as the best practice tool for drilling hazards elimination and risks reduction.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-78-86
Rustam Gakaev, Magomed-Sadyk Bakhaev, Masud Israilov
Environmental issues, including those related to the reduction of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and climate conservation, occupy an important place on the agenda of most world powers, including the Russian Federation (RF), which was documented by the adoption of the Paris Agreement. The countries of the European Union (EU) have historically been the most active supporters of environmental initiatives and have long adapted various fiscal instruments (taxes and quotas) to stimulate enterprises to reduce carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions. One of the latest steps towards such a policy was the introduction of a proposal to introduce cross-border taxes on carbon dioxide in relation to a number of goods imported into the EU countries. And although this project is currently under development, and the legal and methodological details of its implementation are unknown, experts are confident that the new tax will be introduced and entail significant financial losses for the Russian Federation. Taking into account the fact that more than 40% of Russian exports go to the EU, of which more than 70% are "environmentally dirty": oil, coal, gas and metal, due to the new tax, the Russian economy will lose from three to five billion dollars annually already from 2022, and by 2030 these costs will amount to more than eight billion a year.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-87-93
BOUNDARY DELINEATION OF AGRICULTURAL FIELDS BY APPLYING FUZZY OBJECT-BASED IMAGE ANALYSIS
Aliakbar Rasouli, Matanat Asgarova
Expected climate change can disrupt food availability, reduce access to food, and treat human beings and large living creatures in many agricultural operations worldwide, including our homeland Azerbaijan. The boundaries of agricultural fields are, therefore, important components necessary for defining the location, shape, and spatial extent of farming units commonly used to summarize production statistics at the field level. Accordingly, the current paper delineated the agricultural field boundaries from which we acquired Sentinel-2 satellite images dated 2021/06/17 inside the eCognition Developer, Version 9.5, over a small part northeast of Ganja Dashkasan and northwest Central Aran economics regions the Republic of Azerbaijan. Then, the examination was followed by applying a few Fuzzy Object-Based Image Analysis (F-OBIA) techniques inside eCognition Software. In addition, we covered edge detection approaches, watershed segmentation algorithms, and a few rule-based applications to reach the study's targeted aims. Finally, we combined edge detection features and segmented image objects with knowledge-based methods to trace agricultural fields with various Normalized Differences in Vegetation Indices. At the regional and local scales, the current methodology and associated models could be used in many agricultural operational types of research by processing high-resolution satellite imagery. The field data gave satisfactory results. Researchers could apply the proposed methodology in other Azerbaijan regions to access accurate information leading to sustainable agricultural operations.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-94-105
ALGORITHM FOR BUILDING A HYBRID MODEL OF THE EXISTING RISK MODEL
Vugar Aliyev, Zurab Gasitashvili, Merab Pkhovelishvili, Natela Archvadze
Putting risk theory and risk modeling into practice is high on the agenda. We introduce a forecasting algorithm that can be used to forecast "predictive events" - such as forecasting the risk of natural processes, as well as forecasting the risk of various processes of human activity. The article considers an algorithm for choosing the best pairs from event risk forecast models, which, using the precursors of these pairs, significantly reduces the risk of occurring of an event. For a given predictive event, the existing precursors of events are studied, on the basis of which a hybrid model is built.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-106-110
MODELING OF REGIMES WITH SUDDEN CHANGE
Islam Mustafayev, Aminagha Sadigov
The existing concepts of risk and uncertainty for regimes with sudden changes are described. Analyzed what opportunities can be identified and used as possible risks of uncertainty. The main objective of the work is to strengthen the capacity in study of uncertainty impact on security of complex systems for which standard modeling methods are inadequate. The regimes with sudden, discontinuous changes that cause the instability have been modeling for a wide range of different complex systems from economics and ecology to sociology and biology.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-111-117
A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MESTA-NESTOS RIVER RUNOFF MODULUS ON BULGARIAN AND GREEK TERRITORY
Emil Bournaski, Ivan Ivanov
The River Basin Management Plans and relevant Integrated Water Management of the transboundary river Mesta-Nestos between Bulgaria and Greece require sufficiently complete information about the water resources in the watershed and natural risk of expected climate change. The present study aims to present the surface runoff modulus (specific discharge as a characteristic of water resources) in the watershed based on measurements from 3 hydrometric stations on Bulgarian territory for the period 1935 - 2019 and 2 on Greek territory for the hydrological years 1965–1966 to 1989–1990. An attempt has been made for assessment of Climate Change impact on the Mesta-Nestos river runoff for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 based on two different scenarios HadCM2 and ECHM4. The results show a decrease in yearly specific discharge, both in the near future and in the longer time horizon compared to the reference period 1961-1990.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-118-123
Vladimir Moskvichev, Ulyana Postnikova, Olga Taseiko
The territorial risks of the development of Siberia and the Arctic should be considered within the framework of a closed social-natural-technogenic system (S-P-T system), which includes elements of the technosphere, ecosphere and sociosphere and is characterized by strategic development risks, taking into account the territorial factor, scale, composition and level socio-economic development. In SPT systems (subject of the Russian Federation, region, industrial agglomeration, municipality) man-made, natural, environmental, technological, social and other risk groups are implemented. The priority task is to monitor and organize an information system for managing territorial risks and ensure, on this basis, an integrated natural and technogenic safety of territories. This work presents various methods for assessing industrial safety for the northern territories.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-124-131
Vladimir Gurevich
Since the devastating effect of HEMP on electronics in the military field has been known for a long time, all military systems are equipped with efficient protection against the impact of HEMP. However, HEMP is equally dangerous for all civil electronics used in almost every section of today's most important infrastructure of any country, for instance the power industry. Therefore, the opinion that all technical problems have long been solved by the military and you just need to use their solutions and their experience in the civilian sector can be heard often. It is a very common and very dangerous illusion in the author opinion. The article describes the problems associated with the use of military technology in the civilian sector and proposes an author’s strategy for protecting the civilian infrastructure.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-132-139
STUDY OF THE STABILITY AND SAFETY OF THE DAM ON LAKE BOYUK-SHOR IN BAKU
Fakhreddin Gabibov, Vugar Aliyev, Emil Gafarov, Aytan Akhmedova, Sabina Magerramova
The embankment dam on Lake Boyuk-Shor is designed for a highway and divides the lake into two parts. Engineering and geological studies have revealed a complex structure of the soil base of the dam and high seismicity. Studies of the stability of the dam slopes under the PLAXIS 2D program have shown their reliable stability. Studies of the sediment of the body of the dam and its soil base according to the PLAXIS 2D program have shown that the sediment of both the dam and its soil base is acceptable for this class of structures.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-140-145
RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF UNDERGROUND SPACE IN RUSSIAN CITIES
Lebedev Mikhail, Romanevich Kirill
The article briefly discusses the experience of large cities in the integrated development of underground space together with ground construction. This document lists the major cities of Russia in which underground systems operate or are being designed. Based on the existing classification of geological and construction risks of megacities – Moscow and St. Petersburg, the necessity of continuous monitoring and risk management in the development of underground space is shown. The existing latest methodological documents are considered, on the basis of which, construction risks are managed, as well as geotechnical monitoring during the construction and operation of underground structures. Promising directions in developing means and methods of scientific and technical support of underground construction are shown.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-146-159
Idris Bayrakov
Arid ecosystems of the Chechen Republic change their appearance under the influence of various conditions and especially climatic ones. Sometimes such changes are formed only on the increase or, conversely, the decrease of one or another association of herbs or cereals in associations without causing a radical change of vegetation cover. However, often the impact of changed climatic conditions is so strong that a sharp change of associations takes place: the grasshopper ecosystem turns into a white–field ecosystem or, conversely, white-field-type associations become completely typical. The speed of such processes varies, as does the duration of ongoing climatic changes: sometimes they are temporary, and after a few years the original picture is restored, but often they turn out to be permanent. Therefore, the purpose of these studies is to show how the vegetation cover changes under the influence of climatic changes. Vegetation changes under the influence of temperature fluctuations and changes in the intensity of precipitation are shown. The results of the work will be useful in the development of agroforestry measures in the arid zone of the Chechen Republic.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-160-165
SEISMIC OSCILLATIONS OF CRUSTAL LAYER OF THE EARTH
Tukezban Hasanova, Tural Mammadli
Seismic push causes low-frequency oscillations of structures. Since the structures have a large mass, inertia forces occur during oscillations, resulting in high mechanical stresses (compression-tension and shear) at different places of the structures, which can exceed the strength of the material at one place or another and lead to damage or even collapse of the entire structure. Under seismic influences, as a result of inertial forces, low-frequency vibrations of structures occur in structures, mechanical stresses are generated in various places of structures that exceed the strength of the material and can lead to damage or to the collapse of the entire structure. For this reason, buildings with anti-seismic reinforcement of structural elements are being erected in seismic areas. A structure, as a free body in space, has six degrees of freedom and the corresponding vibration modes: three translational displacements (vertical and two horizontal) and three rotational displacements: pendulum oscillations, oscillations around the longitudinal axis; vibrations around the transverse axis; vibrations around the vertical axis. The vibrations of an arbitrary structure with a foundation are the result of the superposition of different vibration modes with free vibration frequencies. In this work for the first time the crustal layer oscillation is described, frequency of oscillations from wavelength is determined.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-166-171
Gennadiy Nigmetov, Andrey Savinov, Temir Nigmetov
In preparation for a catastrophic earthquake, it is important to plan and implement timely organizational and technical measures to protect the population in the zone of possible destructive seismic impact. In order to quantitatively assess the level of earthquake hazard, the vulnerability of buildings and possible losses among the population, the integral value of individual seismic risk is proposed. For a reliable assessment of individual seismic risk, it is necessary to know the parameters of the possible earthquake source, the macroseismic field, the seismic resistance of buildings caught in the 6-point zone of seismic impact, the seismicity of soils at the base of buildings and possible human losses. The methods currently used to assess individual seismic risk are based on many years of statistical data. We propose an end-to-end calculation-experimental approach to estimate possible losses and individual risk based on actual data on hazard, seismicity and earthquake resistance.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-172-179
IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE GROUNDWATER OF THE GANIKH-AYRICHAY FOOTHILLS
Sevinj Rzaeva, Allahverdi Tagiyev, Sevil Zeynalova
Climate change has a negative impact on the water resources of the Republic of Azerbaijan. If we take into account that approximately 70 percent of the water resources of the Republic of Azerbaijan are formed at the expense of transboundary rivers, then the situation becomes even more complicated. According to the generally accepted hydrogeological zoning scheme of the territory of the Republic of Azerbaijan, the Ganikh-Ayrichay artesian basin is a class II artesian basin, included in the composition of the Kura basin. Ganikh-Ayrichay water valley is one of the underground water deposits of Azerbaijan, distinguished by its fresh water resources. Thus, since 2010, 5 m3 of fresh water per second has been transported from this field to Baku through the water pipeline. In recent years, climate change has had a negative impact on the water resources formed in the Ganikh-Ayrichay foothill plain. Observations on the regime of underground water show that the level and consumption of water in pressurized water wells has decreased.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-180-187
APPLICATION OF KANIADAKIS k-STATISTICS TO EXTREME WIND SPEED LOAD DISTRIBUTIONS
Anna Bushinskaya , Sviatoslav Timashev
The article considers application of the Kaniadakis' κ-statistics [1-3] (non-extensive statistical mechanics) which introduced in 2001 in the framework of Einstein's special theory of relativity, to the analysis and adequate description of extreme wind loads. The κ-deformed Kaniadakis exponential function is used to introduce new classes of κ-deformed statistical versions of known distributions. These distributions coincide with the original ones with the exception that their κ-deformed tail follows the Pareto power law. This allows converting the original distributions into heavy-tailed distributions that more closely match the experimental data of mixed systems and systems operating under conditions of increased uncertainty. This allows, within the framework of known distributions of loads and impacts, to model above-standard stressors and analyze the near impossible to predict “Black Swan” and “Dragon-King” ultra-rare type of events with humongous consequences.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-188-199
EVALUATION OF THERMAL ENERGY PRODUCTION BY SOLAR PANELS FOR KARABAKH "GREEN" ENERGY ZONE
Nurmammad Mammadov, Samira Akbarova, Vagif Rustamov
Analysis of the prospects for the efficient use of renewable energy sources is a topical issue in terms of the implementation of the decree on the transformation of the Karabakh zone of Azerbaijan into a "green" energy zone. The article examines the prospects of applying solar vacuum tube panels for the climatic parameters of the Gubadli region of Karabakh. The thermal energy production capacity of the solar panels was evaluated by the "Helios-house" program. The results show that the number of Hevelius SCM-12 180-58 panels placed in the area of 50m2 in Gubadli region should be 12 with the efficiency 70%, the heat loss coefficient of vacuum tubes is 0.5W/m2, the average amount of thermal energy received by solar radiation is 1625 kW/m2 and the total thermal energy production is 14938 kWhr/year. The proposed evaluation methodology can be applied to any region of Azerbaijan.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-200-206
Ulyana Postnikova, Olga Taseiko, Inna Efremova
As a result of the work carried out, the main factors influencing on the formation of the technogenic load in the Arctic territories of the Krasnoyarsk Region were considered, taking into account natural and climatic features. On the basis of Bayesian networks, a methodology has been developed for assessing the probability of the occurrence of man-made hazards, followed by an assessment of the complex risk using the official statistics of the Russian Emergencies Ministry for the period 1996-2020. The obtained quantitative estimates made it possible to identify the main factors influencing on the formation of the man-made load in the Arctic territories.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-207-211
ASSESSMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL OIL SPILLS AND ECONOMİC-ENVİRONMENTAL RISKS
Gafar Ismayilov, Hajar Ismayilova, Hikmet Babirov, Rashid Jabrayilov
The article classifies oil spills in the environment related to accidents in oil production and transportation processes and proposes a new methodological approach for the assessment of environmental and economic risks for various oil spill cases. It was determined that although this risk is low in some cases, it is important to take into account the cases where the consequences are severe because of large-scale oil spills.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-212-217
ON ONE APPROACH TO NON-DESTRUCTIVE CONTROL OVER THE STATE OF PIPELINE SYSTEMS
Reshad Ismibayli, Yegana Ashrafova
In the process of long-term operation of pipeline systems for the transport of hydrocarbons (oil, gas) and other liquids, leaks occur in some of its sections over time. An important role of timely detection of leaks is occupied by methods of indestructible control over the state of pipeline systems that do not require the production of any technical actions. Non-destructive testing methods are based, as a rule, on mathematical methods and modern computer technologies. In this paper, using the example of the problem of determining the locations of fluid leaks, an approach is proposed based on solving an inverse problem with respect to a system of differential equations with partial derivatives that describes the process of fluid flow.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-218-226
METHODOLOGY FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF PROBLEMS CAUSED BY RESERVOIRS ON THE SEASHORE
Lia Matchavariani, Giorgi Metreveli
Geological, demographic, climatic (present-day eustasy) and anthropogenic (reservoirs, urban loadings) factors play an active role in the formation of the coastal zone. The anthropogenic factor acts against the background of natural factors and depending on the direction of their vectors increases or decreases. In such circumstances, it is expedient to create a long-term forecast of coastal dynamics using proven methods. In contrast to them, in order to study the anthropogenic factor, i.e., the impact of the reservoir on the state of coastal beaches, a new method for studying the limiting volume of the silting prism of a reservoir has been proposed. Therefore, for the long-term prediction of the dynamics of a specific section of the seashore under the influence of the reservoir, a methodology should be used, that, together with it, combines the research methods of the factors operating in the region. Such a technique has been first tested on the eastern coast of the Black Sea, in the Chorokhi delta, where the sea threatened the city of Batumi with complete destruction after river sediments were blocked in recent years by a cascade of six reservoirs. According to the forecast made by this technique, the coast of the city will no longer receive beach-forming sediments within a millennium. Taking into consideration that the sea annually carries away a large amount of beach-building material from the delta, the city of Batumi and the entire delta are threatened with a complete abrasive collapse. The long-term forecast created using the new method makes it possible to determine timely the duration of the impact of reservoirs on the coast, the risks of natural disasters, and start permanent artificial backfilling of the coast with sediments and its strengthening with appropriate anti-abrasive structures.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-227-234
Muslim Eskiev, Aishat Baysangurova, Elita Yaumieva
The fight against climate change is one of the key tasks both at the international level and in a single country. All regions of the world today are assessing the negative consequences of global warming, developing regulatory mechanisms in order to reduce the negative impact on the climate and adapt to it as much as possible, as well as transform economies to move towards a low-carbon development model. Goals are set and commitments are made to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. More than 140 countries, accounting for 90% of global GHG emissions, have already reported targets for achieving carbon neutrality. Accordingly, business and entire sectors of the economy determine their opportunities in this direction, setting their own goals and identifying tools for reducing emissions and developing new technological solutions. Obviously, it is impossible to immediately switch to a new economic model and technologies with zero greenhouse gas emissions. For some industries, in principle, such solutions are complex, and alternatives to them appear extremely slowly. To achieve carbon neutrality goals, carbon dioxide capture, capture and storage projects play an important role. A climate project is a set of measures that reduce (prevent) greenhouse gas emissions or increase GHG1 absorption. The result of the implementation of climate projects are carbon units, expressed as the number of avoided or absorbed emissions in tons of CO2 equivalent. Special requirements are imposed on these projects and their justification, and their results are confirmed by external experts.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-235-241
A SHORT REVIEW OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND HEALTH IMPACTS OF GOLD MINING
Palma Orlović-Leko, Branimir Farkaš, Ivo Galić
Gold mining is attracting increasing attention in many countries of the world. On the other hand, this sector causes numerous environmental and human health issues. The main problems are associated with: (i) Acid Mine Drainage (AMD) with low pH values and high concentrations of heavy metals, (ii) using large quantities of hazardous chemicals such as mercury and cyanide and (iii) mining dust. Degree of the impact depends of the scale mining (small or large scale), type of mine (surface and underground) as well as of the chemical reagents that use in the production process. Modern technology has made it possible to reduce environmental impacts of mining activities. This brief review looks at the gold mining sector (industrial and artisanal) and its key impact on environmental as well as on health of workers and communities (residents who live in proximity to the mine).
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-242-248
NATURAL HAZARDS AND ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION-MAKING
Zelimkhan Musostov, Albina Berkaeva, Isa Basnukaev
The global problem is to achieve the set goals for reducing emissions, it is necessary to invest in the development of new ways to reduce carbon emissions in the atmosphere by accelerating convergence in key areas. Looming climate tipping points require public and private participation in scaling up climate responses by creating opportunities for rapid progress that improve human conditions through the provision of ecosystem services and socio-economic development. Efforts to mitigate climate change are based on two imperatives: decarbonizing our energy production systems and removing carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere. As described below, Natural Climate Solutions (NCS) represent a promising path to restoring climate stability by reducing atmospheric CO2 emissions while maintaining and improving critical production systems and ecosystem services.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-249-255
Sefail Verdiyev
In the article the suggested method to decrease error of chimneys deformation continual inclined measuring using total stations is described. It is determined that upon continual inclined reflector less measurements of chimneys deformation in power industry the most significant factors causing error of inclined measurements are angle of beam incidence, duration of measurements series, beams propagation. The method for forming and further accounting of equally distributed on time systematic error of measurements of chimneys inclination by way of synthesis of special order for organization of measurements using total station is suggested. The mathematical basics of the method is described.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-256-261
GREENHOUSE GAS MANAGEMENT AND RELATED ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES
Rashiya Bekmurzaeva
In this article, the author talks about a global change in society - warming. It is based on the adverse effects of climate change – health risks, flooding, fires, land degradation. The reason for all these climate changes is the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases. Combating climate change, greenhouse gas emissions - achieving carbon neutrality or decarbonization.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-262-267
Telman Aliev, Naila Musaeva
It is noted that during changes in the geodetic state of urban development area, as well as the technical condition of the objects located there, the noisy signals coming from the corresponding sensors contain noise correlated with the useful signal. It is shown that the characteristics of the relationship between the useful signal and the noise are informative attributes of the beginning of anomalous natural phenomena, as well as changes in the stress-strain state of objects of the urban development complex. We have developed algorithms for calculating the estimates of the relay cross-correlation functions, normalized cross-correlation functions, as well as the correlation coefficient between the useful signal and the noise. It is noted that the use of the algorithms for calculating these characteristics in control systems allows detecting nascent anomalous processes, as well as defects of building structures at the initial latent stage and to prevent the possibility of accident situations.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-268-273
HYDROGEOLOGICAL CONDITIONS OF THE SHIRVAN STEPPE OF THE KURA-ARAKS LOWLAND OF AZERBAIJAN
Chingiz Gulmammadov, Makhluga Mammadova, Allahverdi Tagiyev
According to the results of the author`s research on the long-term average level of groundwater, the degree of mineralization, salinization of soils and changes in groundwater regime during 1977-2020, as well as the collection of materials in this direction during 1930-2020, the hydrogeological conditions of the Shirvan plain were studied. Based on the analysis of the results the regime types of groundwater were separated and a correlative dependence was found between regime types and factors forming the regime. Five genetic types have been identified according to the factors forming the regime and the synchrony of changes in groundwater levels. Under the influence of natural and anthropogenic factors, the level of groundwater, the degree of mineralization, the chemical composition, the chemical composition and salinity of the soils have changed. During the period from 1958 to 2020, the level of groundwater in the area increased by more than 4.1 m due to irrigated agriculture, and their mineralization degree decreased by 16.2 g/l due to filtration of the surface water and removal of mineralized water through drainage. As a result of the analysis regime types of groundwater were separated and a correlative dependence was found between regime types and factors forming the regime. According to the factors forming the regime and the synchrony of changes in groundwater levels, the genetic types of the regime-climate, hydrological, irrigation, irrigation-drainage, irrigation were separated and their areas of distribution were determined. The climate type regime is characterized by a high correlation between the rise and fall of groundwater level and the seasonal and perennial periodicity of atmospheric precipitation, the hydrological type is characterized by a similar dependence on the surface flow, the irrigation-drainage type is characterized by a similar dependence between irrigation water and surface water basins.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-274-281
Marina Fomenko, Georgy Fomenko, Sahiba Kalaeva, Elena Skuratova
The research is aimed at developing and approbation of decision-making algorithm to ensure environmental safety of oil refining areas for local population based on the mechanism of health risk assessment. Its implementation at all stages of the life cycle of environmentally hazardous production facilities ensures compliance with the regulatory level of environmental impacts on the border of the enterprise sanitary protection zone and the adjacent residential areas. Methodologically, the research is based on conceptual provisions of the risk management theory and corresponding standards of ISO 31000 series, which prescribe regulated risk management procedures: risk identification (by risk hazards and their sources); risk assessment and their prioritization by degree of significance; planning and implementation of risk management tools; monitoring residual risks. Risk assessment was performed using the standard Russian health risk assessment methodology. The algorithm is a set of sequential procedures for making decisions to ensure the residual health risk meets regulatory requirements. Emphasis is placed on the stages of design and operation of an environmentally hazardous facility when the level of health risks posed is particularly sensitive to the results of the decisions made. Timely identification of hazards and assessment of health risks allows to define the location of environmentally hazardous facilities at the design, considering their risk-posing capacity. During operation stage, the riskiest areas of the sanitary protection zone boundary and the industrial site, priority facilities and chemical toxicants (in terms of created risks) are identified. This provides a basis for adjusting the industrial and environmental control programs, prioritizing investment programs and plans of environmental protection (considering the expected reduction of the health risk), as well as operational documentation (to minimize the possibility of creating high risk emissions). Risk management tools are used - risk avoidance, reducing the severity of consequences, reducing the probability of risks. The algorithm makes it possible to ensure meeting the regulatory requirements for residual health risk during the operation of environmentally hazardous oil refinery facility, while avoiding significant financial costs because of environmentally insufficient planning and technological decisions made. The algorithm can be used for the operating industrial facilities and new construction objects, regardless of the industry specifics. It is applicable to chemical pollution of atmospheric air, acoustic and electromagnetic influence, pollution of water.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-282-290
THE USE OF REMOTE DATA FOR MONITORING DEFORMATION PROCESSES IN HYDROCARBON DEPOSITS
Alexander Fremd
The paper considers the issues of possible use of data on microamplitude displacements of points on the Earth's surface as indicators of manifestations of induced seismicity. The results of the performed processing of the X-ray interferometry data, presented by the corresponding graphs, in comparison with the data of the epicenter of borehole seismological observations on the field area for the same period of time testifies to the unconditional connection of manifestations seismicity with anomalous features of amplitude graphs. The revealed regularities allow using the data of the interferometry radar not only for the purposes of areal mapping of deformation processes, but also as a tool for monitoring the manifestations of seismicity caused by the exploitation of the deposit and the accompanying disturbances of geodynamic equilibrium. This work is purely methodical in nature.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-291-298
CARBON LANDFILL AS A RISK MANAGEMENT TOOL IN THE SYSTEM OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Konstantin Ordov, Seda Aslakhanovŕ
Adaptation to climate change, implementation of the new climate agenda and a number of international climate agreements and standards require scientifically based information and analytical support of the country's economy and population with data on the current and expected states of the climate system. Particularly relevant are the development and testing of technologies for controlling greenhouse gas emissions and calculating the carbon balance of territories. Climate change affects, to one degree or another, the sphere of interests of any subject of the Federation and practically any sector of the economy and social sphere of the Russian Federation. The planning and implementation of many large investment and production projects are highly sensitive to climate and climate change issues and require efforts to ensure that the implemented measures are cost-effective and at the same time contribute to reducing the risks and mitigating the effects of a changing climate, ensuring social and environmental security. At the same time, it is important to keep in mind that, in addition to a direct impact on the economy and population of the Russian Federation, the weather and climate factor has a significant impact on the system of international trade, economic and political relations. This article shows that it is carbon polygons that are the tool of modern climate policy that provide observations, assessment and forecasting of climate change and its consequences, as well as allow developing and testing technologies for remote and ground monitoring of greenhouse gas emissions and other parameters significant for climate change.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-299-304
FUZZY ASSESSMENT OF OIL SPILLS INTO THE ENVIRONMENT
Hajar Ismailova, Mansur Shahlarli
It is known that the amount of expected environmental damage with adverse effects is defined as the sum of the individual expected losses for different components of the environment. Estimation of damage caused by oil spills during tragic oil pipeline accidents is based on the existing normative documents and methodological guidance. The basis for developing priority measures to increase the safety of the main pipelines, which are considered a potential source of threat, is the risk assessment in the pipeline. Accidents are mainly associated with oil spills, which have a negative impact on the environment. Therefore, any section of the main oil pipelines should be assessed with certain risk parameters as it can cause accident.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-305-308
Gahraman Hasanov, Soltan Aliyev, Ruslan Hasanov, Vaqif Valiyev, Ismail Aliyev
The paper examines the issues of replacing residual oil from fine pores of oil contaminated soil under gradientless pressure conditions. It was shown that the replacement of residual oil from fine pores of oil contaminated soil can be possible because of their unavailability for displacing water. Therefore, in addition to others, destruction degree of the system of pores and capillaries in aggregated structure of oil contaminated soil is considered as an efficiency criterion of an impact on disperse system in oil flushing process, and optimum destruction – as an optimum degree of these impacts. The aim is solved by using the complex methods of joint chemical, physical-chemical and mechanical impact on structured disperse systems of mineral particles of soil.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-309-317
FORECAST MODELING OF MAN-MADE EMERGENCIES WITH MODERN METHODS
Valery Akimov, Maxim Bedilo, Olga Derendiaeva, Ekaterina Ivanova, Irina Olyan
The article discusses the verbal and mathematical foundations of the forecast modeling of the most catastrophic emergencies of a man-made nature, such as: road traffic accidents, aviation catastrophes, explosions in buildings and structures, radiation and chemical accidents, as well as accidents on housing and utilities systems.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-318-323
RISK ASSESSMENT OF ABSHERON PENINSULA OIL AND GAS FIELD USING MICROWAVE SENSING TECHNOLOGIES
Emil Bayramov
A number of productive oil and gas fields are located in the Absheron Peninsula of Azerbaijan. The primary goal of the presented study was to quantitatively assess the ground deformation rates of oil and gas fields, determine natural and man-made influencing factors and predict deformation trends. The determined maximum displacement rates of subsidence and uplift processes were −26 mm/y and +23 mm/y, respectively. However spatial density analysis of deformation velocity presented the natural patterns of uplift and subsidence tectonic processes. This allowed to determine that two oil and gas fields hold a higher probability of being affected by man-made oil and gas exploration activities, whereas the one oil field is affected by both natural and man-made processes.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-324-329
METHOD OF STUDYING THE REDUCTION AND SEQUESTRATION OF GREENHOUSE GASES ON CARBON FARMS
Sergey Mashkov, Kheda Murtazova
Methodological approaches to the formation of a unified National system for monitoring and recording the balance of carbon and greenhouse gas emissions are considered, as well as the purpose, typification, requirements for the spatial distribution of "carbon" landfills, assessment of the carbon absorption capacity of forests and agricultural ecosystems of the Russian Federation, a standard methodology recommended by the international community for assessment of carbon stocks in soils, which should be applied in the Russian Federation to ensure comparability of greenhouse gas accounting results between countries, determination of carbon absorption capacity of natural ecosystems and soils. The carbon uptake potential of agricultural soils is shown. A list of indicators for assessing soil carbon according to the methodology of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories) is given.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-330-336
INVESTIGATION OF GRANULOMETRIC AND CHEMICAL COMPOSITION OF SAMPLES OF UNDERWATER WELDING
Konstantin Kirichenko, Evgeniy Elovskiy, Kirill Golokhvast
The article is devoted to the study of granulometric characteristics and chemical composition of samples of underwater welding for sea water from the water area from Ajax Bay (Sea of Japan) and fresh water. A high content of the smallest particles of metal oxides with a dimension of less than 10 μm was revealed.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-337-342
Husniddin Boymurodov, Khojamurod Jabborov, Tozagul Jabbarova, Bakhtiyor Aliyev, Omon Mirzamurodov, Azamat Egamqulov
In the Kashkadarya basin, the destruction of natural zoogeographic barriers under the influence of anthropogenic factors has led to the expansion of the range of invasive species. With the construction of reservoirs in the Kashkadarya basin, the range of Unionidae, Euglesidae, Pisididae and Sorbiculidae families has been expanded. There are 9 species and 1 subspecies of bivalve mollusks were found in Pachkamar, 11 species and 2 subspecies in Chimkurgan, 5 species and 1 subspecies in Kamashi, 7 species in Hisorak, 5 species in Dehkanabad, 3 species in Nugayli and 5 species in Yangikurgan.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-343-347
Deshy Musostova, Valentina Dzobelova, Varvara Markaryan
Risk as an integral part of the political, economic and social life of society invariably accompanies absolutely all spheres and activities of any corporation operating in market conditions. Risk management is especially relevant in the face of economic uncertainty, the volatility of the national currency, active technological development and tougher competition. In 2020, the Russian risk management standard for a commercial company based on ISO 31000 was developed, but the procedure for its application has not yet received a comprehensive study, which determines the relevance of the chosen research topic.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-348-352
POLLUTION AND RISKS IN PAMIRO-TIENSHEN-BURIAL GROUNDS OF URANIUM AND OBSOLETE PECTICIDES
Igor Hadjamberdiev, Ibragimjon Domulajanov, Ikromjon Mamadov
There are huge environmental problems in Central Asia (CA) due to dozens of former USSR uranium tailings and abandoned obsolete pesticides warehouses. 17% of TienShan-Pamir territory (Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan) is considered to be the worst polluted areas. We studied radioactivity in uranium area and radiation absorbed by humans in these areas. We have determined the other harmful toxicants - obsolete pesticides which still being used illegally. It has been concludes that immunity system are very vulnerable to combined harmful impacts mentioned above. Scientific studies were conducted in local settlements - school workshops in local languages including videos, presentations and leaflets.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-353-356
GEOPHYSICAL AND GEOCHEMICAL STUDIES ON AN ACTIVE VOLCANO (EBEKO VOLCANO, PARAMUSHIR ISLAND)
Sofiya Kokhanova, Dmitry Kucher, Sergey Volynkin
Investigations on Ebeko volcano, Paramushir island are presented: microelectrotomography on a thermal field, and the results of a mercury survey in a nearby city after an ash fall. High levels of mercury vapor in the air indicate the unfavorable ecological situation of the settlement. According to the results of electrotomography, we can talk about the thermal field subsurface space: the structure of the boiling mud pots and the presence of the gas phase.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-357-360
Nurmammad Mammadov, Samira Akbarova, Gulnar Feyzieva
Solving the problems of energy saving and efficient use of thermal energy in the construction industry is primarily associated with a number of insufficiently developed scientific and technical problems of urban planning, infrastructure, building thermal physics, such as thermal conductivity and humidity conditions of complex outdoor structures, heat resistance and general heat exchange of a room, air regime buildings, non-stationary joint heat, moisture and air exchange, as well as the durability of the external building envelope. Today, energy saving in urban planning, in the restoration of the destroyed cities and towns of Karabakh, as well as in their further operation, is increasingly relevant due to the high rate of construction of buildings for various purposes, with the deterioration of the environment, the rise in the cost of energy, material and labor resources. Today, world energy is one of the most powerful, actively functioning global systems that determines the most diverse aspects of the life of human society and largely determines the direction and pace of development of the world economy. The paper discusses the application of modern information technologies in solving issues of urban planning, construction and operation of buildings and structures in Karabakh.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-361-366
ON THE CONSTRUCTION OF MEMBERSHIP FUNCTIONS FOR FUZZY SETS ASSOCIATED WITH RISKS
Reshad Ismibayli, Pünar Guliyeva, Nigar Ahmadli
The paper analyzes the methods for constructing membership functions on the example of fuzzy sets associated with risks using expert information. Methods of approximation and interpolation are used. The influence of noise in expert data on the accuracy of the obtained membership functions is analyzed.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-367-371
Fatima Dakhaeva, Tamerlan Magomaev
At present, increasing the efficiency of involving new technologies in economic circulation is impossible without analyzing the effectiveness of innovative activity. Considering the issue of innovation management, it is necessary not only to take into account the multi-level approach and positioning of the methodology of innovation analysis, depending on the adoption of economic decisions, but also to take into account the very nature of innovation as the basis for building valuation activities. A deterrent to the diffusion of innovations is the lack of methods for analyzing and improving the efficiency of innovative projects. Their development continues to be carried out largely without regard to the type and scale of technologies being introduced. The lack of an appropriate methodology leads to the fact that enterprises often refuse to introduce innovations due to the uncertainty of their final results.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-372-379
Svetlana Litvinskaya, Yulia Postarnak
The results of studying the structure of flora and plant communities of the technogenic landscape of Tyrnyauz mining and processing combine (Kabardino-Balkarya Republic), the territory of which was previously a closed facility are presented in the article. The composition of the flora, including 229 species of vascular plants, was revealed. Ecosystem diversity includes both natural and landscapes, represented by high-altitude meadows, high-altitude forests of Betula pendula, Betula litwinowii, Salix caprea, shrubby, petrophytous groupings and steppe meadows. There is a significant disturbance of ecosystems, as evidenced by the high proportion of synanthropic plant species. Rare plant species are not registered, which also indicates a high unresolved community.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-380-386
Elena Arefyeva, Ekaterina Alekseeva
In the article, the authors propose an integrated approach to assessing the sustainability of cultural heritage objects under the influence of hazardous natural processes with a climatic factor. The approach is based on an integral indicator of the sustainability of a cultural heritage object, formed on the basis of three indicators (exposure to hazardous natural processes, physical condition and category of value of cultural heritage objects). This approach will make it possible to give a complex comprehensive assessment of a cultural heritage site and determine the weight of each factor in the formation of a common danger for such sites.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-387-393
ON THE POSSIBILITY OF REDUCING HARMFUL EMISSIONS IN HIGH-PARAMETER POWER UNITS
Jamala Mammadova
Steam-turbine units operating with above-critical parameters of water vapor have been studied. Researches show that when steam in power units moves from critical to high, supercritical and ultra-supercritical parameters, the initial parameters of the initial steam increase, the thermal efficiency of the steam energy cycle and the efficiency raise, the specific fuel consumption decreases, resulting in harmful emissions into the atmosphere (NOx, SOx and greenhouse gases CO2) are reduced, which reduces the environmental burden.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-394-399
OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH RISKS IN OIL AND GAS WORKERS IN THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC
Sergei Syurin, Aleksei Kizeev
To study the occupational health risks in oil and gas industry in the Russian Arctic in order to plan and guide further occupational disease prevention programs. We studied and analyzed the data of "Working conditions and occupational morbidity" dataset with regard to the population of the Nenets and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrugs in 2007-2021. Noise (38.9%), cooling microclimate (12.3%), non-ionizing electromagnetic fields and radiation (10.7%) were the most prevalent hazards in the oil and gas industry in the Russian Arctic. Combined effect of two hazards was observed in 19.0% of workers. During 15 years of follow-up, 54 new cases of occupational disease were identified in 50 employees, including sensorineural deafness (46.3%), radiculopathy (18.5%) and vibration disease (13.0%). Occupational diseases were mainly found in harmful classes 3.1 and 3.2 (85.1%) due to outdated technological processes and equipment design flaws (75.9%). In 2007-2021, occupational disease cases in the oil and gas industry made 14.8% of their overall count in the region. The mean rate of occupational morbidity was 0.426 cases / 10,000 employees, five times less than elsewhere in the industry (1,939 cases / 10,000 employees). The risk to obtain an occupational disease otherwise was higher compared to the oil and gas enterprises (RR=4.55; 95% CI 3.40-197.2; p<0.001). The risk to gain an occupational disease in oil and gas production in the Russian Arctic was lower compared to other industries. This may be due to better working conditions, but can also result from incomplete existing diseases verification or still from some other yet unknown reasons.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-400-410
THE INFLUENCE OF HAUL ROAD PARAMETERS ON SAFETY
Branimir Farkaš, Ana Hrastov, Ivo Galić
Using risk assessment in a work process that can influence people, machinery, and environment enables simple and quick method of establishing potential hazards and giving those a risk rating. The big advantage is that hazards are defined for a specific case, and consequently, risk ratings are defined for each hazard. Adding risk ratings for each hazard makes it possible to assess total model risk rating and determine the average risk rating of each model. Distributional risk assessment is an additional method of analysing each model and it provides a visual overview. Additional risk control measures were applied to the least critical model to assess the hazards, and thus model risks were reduced to the least value. Risk assessment was performed on the example of “Očura II” quarry haul road based on a new risk assessment algorithm.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-411-423
ECOLOGICAL ASSESSMENT OF AFTER – EFFECTS OF SEISMIC VIBRATIONS
Jamila Imamaliyeva
Assessment of direct impacts of after-effects of earthquakes on the environment, economical results of ecological damages, solutions of ecological problem. Not only communal economy and communication but also environment was damaged after earthquake. Direct impacts on the environment include real and remnant danger of industry objects especially chemical depots; damage of water stocks including water economy as well as dikes, irrigation canals; destruction of city and industry cleaning systems of filthy waters; damage of water stock may cause water flood of harmed areas. Some direct influences to the environment are expected due to disturbing of sanitation and utilization rules, burial of building wreckages and destroying of ruins. It is important to create an ecological control program, as it is impossible to appreciate all impacts on environment for the first time. Disaster recovery plan contains strategies to minimize the effects of a disaster, help an organization to quickly resume key operations or continue to operate.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-424-432
Arkadiy Granovskiy, Bulat Dzhamuev, Vadim Mukminov
The results of experimental studies of the strength of masonry walls made of cellular concrete blocks under various force influences are presented. It is noted that the use of walls made of cellular concrete blocks with a density of D400-D600 in seismic areas can significantly reduce the magnitude of the seismic load on the structure. According to the results of the research, the behavior of the masonry under the action of loads modeling seismic impacts, considering its reinforcement with composite materials based on carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) and bazalt fiber reinforced polymer (BFRP). Data on tests on the vibration platform of full-size wall samples, considering external reinforcement with CFRP tapes, are presented. An increase in the seismic resistance of reinforced structures due to the use of composite materials has been revealed. The nature of the destruction of wall panels reinforced and non-reinforced with composite canvases is shown. According to the results of tests of fragments of walls made of cellular concrete blocks using reinforcement composite mesh based on basalt fiber, the effect of its use in axial stretching of masonry was noted. The use of a composite mesh with a 25×25 mm cell based on basalt fiber made it possible to increase the tensile strength of the masonry across the cross section by 28%.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-433-442
APPLICATION OF DIGITAL TECHNOLOGIES FOR PLANNING MEASURES TO PREVENT HAZARDOUS PRODUCTION FACILITIES ACCIDENTS
Sayali Alekperova
Hazardous production facilities operational safety is ensured by risk of emergency situations effective management, such as planning and implementing technical measures, namely safety and reliability measures. These measures are planned according to project specific hazards to prevent accidents and incidents on technological processes. The focus of such decisions should take into account the facilities life cycle stages and phases of beginning and amplification of probable emergency situations. This article discusses basics and results of application of artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies for planning measures to improve the reliability and ensure the safety of oil and gas production and transportation facilities during their full life cycle.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-443-449
GLOBAL CLIMATE POLICY TRENDS AND CHALLENGES FOR RUSSIA
Rustam Gakaev, Magomed-Sadyk Bakhaev, Salah Edisultanov
Regulators would do well to develop a climate strategy with more ambitious climate targets and a comprehensive strategy to reduce GHG emissions in the oil and gas sector (including a strategy to reduce methane emissions). It may include a variety of regulatory mechanisms - standards, targets, requirements for monitoring, reporting and pricing of GHG emissions, rules for certification and verification of projects to reduce emissions, etc. It is also important to approve public funding for R&D and pilot projects to reduce GHG emissions, especially in areas of deep decarbonization. It is necessary to further analyze the competitive advantages of Russia in the field of decarbonization, and then promote them both domestically and on the world market. Corporations should include decarbonization in their overall business strategy and investment plans, rather than limiting it to health, safety, environment and investor relations departments. To implement an effective decarbonization strategy for any company, it is necessary to review the strategy and corporate governance as a whole.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-450-457
MAGNETIC NANOPARTICLES FOR MONITORING MICROPLASTICS POLLUTION IN THE SURFACE WATERS
Iuliia Bakhteeva, Irina Medvedeva, Marina Filinkova, Ilia Byzov, Mikhail Uimin, Evgeny Tseitlin
The accumulation of plastic waste in the world's oceans is a growing public concern, under the action of water and solar radiation, the macroscopic plastic objects break down into micro- and nano-sized particles. The amount of microplastics in natural waters is currently unknown because of the difficulties of their quantification in water. It is proposed to use the method of the preconcentration of micro- and nano- plastic particles in water using two main approaches, such as the addition of composite magnetic nanoseeds that form aggregates with detectable plastic particles, and the subsequent separation of these hetertoaggregates from water by magnetic separation. In order to concentrate polyethylene (PE, 20-100 μm) and polyethylene terephthalate (PET, 10-20μm) particles from water, the magnetic Fe-C-NH2 nanoseeds (10 nm) were added to the water, afterward, the magnetic sedimentation of the formed heteroaggregates in a gradient magnetic field was conducted. The effect of magnetic nanoparticles concentration in suspension, the time expose for the heteroaggregation on the efficiency magnetic preconcentration have been investigated.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-458-463
EARLY WARNING AND ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING SYSTEMS IN THE CONTEXT OF ECONOMIC DIGITALIZATION
Nasrudin Alkhanov, Aslan Inalkaev, Larisa Khatsieva
Digital technologies have completely changed the way of life of billions of people in just a couple of decades. Computers, smartphones, consumer electronics, information systems have become an integral part of work and life. The rapid development of digital technologies opens up a huge range of opportunities in various areas, including for solving environmental problems - from the creation of services for efficient waste management, monitoring and data collection systems, climate change observations, the search for charging stations for electric vehicles to the creation of systems that help prevent environmental disturbances and predict natural disasters. The development of society, the complication of its infrastructure require careful thoughtful resource management, mastering new means and methods of information processing, ways to quickly solve management problems, evaluate and control changing processes. In modern economic science, deep research is being carried out on smart city design methods: system dynamics, agent-based modeling, cluster analysis, and others. The conceptual models of the "smart city" are proposed to be based on the assessment of satisfaction with the conditions of the urban environment, taking into account the influence of multiple characteristics: the development of retail trade; food supply; housing construction; crowd behavior in emergency situations; distribution of harmful emissions into the city.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-464-470
Fakhreddin Gabibov, Khadija Salaeva
The article shows natural and architectural analogies in which triangular and arched arches are the most stable. A new design of a drainage pipe with a cross section in the form of a Reulot triangle with an angular arch, related to cycloidal structures and increased stability, has been developed. Based on model studies, it was revealed that the arches in the form of half an astroid are the most stable, in this regard, a new design of a drainage pipe with a vault in the form of intersecting hyperbolas has been developed, which practically corresponds to half an astroid.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-471-475
Madina Barzaeva, Ruslan Ilyasov
The relevance of the study is due to the fact that the current global labor market is under the influence of the IV industrial revolution (Industry 4.0). The purposes of the study are to assess the risk and impact of cyclical and sudden trends affecting the labor market and, as a result, the forms of labor organization and labor functions of employees. In this regard, authors considers academic theories in the context of conceptualizing the impact of Industry 4.0 on the labor market and labor functions, and identifies long-term trends in the transformation of the professions market. The empirical basis of the study is information prepared on the basis of open statistical data of Rosstat and the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation, as well as resources of analytical publications and scientific publications, including materials from international organizations, leading consulting companies, global associations, leading educational institutions and other active participants in the global educational environment and labor market experts. The study examined a list of trends affecting organizations, their strategies and business models; describes the impact of trends on the transformation of current professions and the emergence of new ones; the need for skill sets necessary to match these professions has been identified. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the substantiation of the concept shifted in favor of a highly skilled workforce (skills-biased technical change, SBTC) and the theory of displacement of routine labor (routine-biased technological change, RBTC).
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-476-484
THE PROBABILITY-STATISTICAL STUDY OF THE AMELIORATIVE CONDITION OF LANDS
Anar Hummatov
Article devoted is comparative study of satellite imegary and collected field-research data on the research area with different natural and economic conditions. Probability - statistically evaluations were performed for the purpose of land reclamation research which of based on indicators of salinity, humus and values of NDVI, which is around the point of the where the soil sample was taken. The study was carried out to know the land reclamation condition by using GIS technology and Regression analysis. We discuss how data can be organized so that important features can be grasped quickly and effectively. During carrying out of reclamative researches and processing of the collected data necessary to solve various problems, which are applied information technology and a geographic information system (GIS), accoding to directions on the study.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-485-493
Liubov Kalimanova, Olga Taseiko
The essence of the problem of the methodology for assessing non-carcinogenic risk is to assess the potential consequences for human health in different variants of previous and existing exposures in the future harmful factors. The article considers how atmospheric air pollution in Krasnoyarsk city affects human health.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-494-501
Eldar Gasumov, Ramiz Gasumov, Gazanfar Suleymanov, Khalig Gurbanov
The article considers possible specific risks in the production and transportation of natural gas from Azerbaijan to the European continent in the context of the economic crisis in the world energy market. It is stated that the effective management of strategic, as well as specific risks, should be based on a comprehensive identification and description of the risks that determine the key indicators of the gas industry. The necessity of ways to minimize political and economic risks to ensure uninterrupted and reliable export of natural gas from the AR to the countries of the continent, including alternative routes for the transportation of natural gas, taking into account the risk of the transit country, is substantiated.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-502-508
CONTROLLING OF THE BEGINNING OF THE LATENT PERIOD OF ACCIDENTS AT PUMPING STATIONS
Telman Aliev, Naila Musayeva, Narmin Rzayeva, Rauf Gadimov, Tahir Alizada, Ana Mammadova
It is shown that the control system of pumping stations does not ensure signaling of the beginning of the latent period of accidents. Because of this, their state of emergency is detected at the point when it becomes apparent. At the same time, elimination of a malfunction at the moment of its initiation requires much less resources and time than after-accident repairs of the pump. We propose algorithms and technologies for calculating the estimates of the noise variance and cross-correlation functions between the useful signal and the noise of the vibration signals, which allow forming informative attributes for signaling and control of the beginning of the latent period of malfunctions. These technologies can also be used to improve fault-free operation at reservoir pressure maintenance stations during oil production at compressor stations, at drilling rigs, at artesian wells, etc.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-509-515
CONTROL OF A TUBE FURNACE IN CONDITIONS OF RISK AND INCREASED EXPLOSION HAZARD
Aygun Safarova, Elchin Melikov, Tamella Magerramova
In the condition of rapid production intensification based on an increasingly complete and rational use of technical, material and labor resources, improvement of the production organization and labor, improvement of the system and management and planning methods, there is a need for an operational analysis of the current situation, improvement of methods for regulating, managing and reducing the anthropogenic, man-made and natural character risks. In the oil and gas sector, the distinctive features of which are the multi-connectedness and multidimensionality of their constituent technological apparatuses, industrial, environmental and economic risks are especially high. Considering that the technological processes basis is thermal processes occurring in apparatuses, in connection with this, the abstracts pay attention to topical automation issues, regulation and control of increased fire and explosion hazard processes occurring in a tube furnace, ensuring a reduction in the risk of the aforementioned emergencies.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-516-521
Sahib Farzaliyev, Shaig Guluzadeh
Since the construction of high-rise monolithic reinforced concrete buildings is a complex and dynamic system and it is influenced by a large number of factors, the quantitative indicator of organizational and technological reliability is probabilistic in nature, their assessment can be solved by mathematical statistics by interviewing experts. In our republic, the volume of construction of high-rise monolithic reinforced concrete buildings has reached a record level. Statistics show that the construction of monolithic reinforced concrete buildings in the republic is 86.0% in housing construction. This makes it relevant to study and develop methods for improving the organizational and technological reliability of high-rise monolithic reinforced concrete buildings. The assessment of the organizational and technological reliability of the construction of monolithic reinforced concrete buildings includes such issues as the probability of completion of construction, that is, the implementation of a construction project on time and within budget, with the necessary quality. Thus, it is necessary to analyze in more detail the factors determining the reliability of the construction of monolithic reinforced concrete buildings using the methods of probability theory and mathematical statistics.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-522-529
ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC RISKS OF THE OIL AND GAS SECTOR
Fatima Dakhaeva, Tamerlan Magomaev
In order to manage environmental safety in order to fulfill the tasks formulated in the Law of the Russian Federation "On the Basic Principles (Strategy) and State Environmental Policy for the Period until 2020", the problem of assessing the technogenic impact is becoming increasingly relevant. The works of many authors have created methodological and theoretical prerequisites for the further development of the assessment and modeling of environmental risks, taking into account technogenic atmospheric pollution for managing environmental safety. At the same time, there is a need to further improve the mechanisms for managing the environmental and economic safety of technogenically loaded regions, industrial centers and cities. The purpose of the article is to analyze modern methods for assessing environmental risks associated with the exploitation of oil fields.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-530-536
Zelimkhan Musostov, Alisa Olisaeva, Isa Basnukaev
The relevance of the topic of the impact of the economy on the environment is evidenced by the current process itself and the large-scale coverage of the consequences of the development of environmental problems. The anthropogenic impact on the environment has reached its maximum level due to the development of scientific and technological progress. The article focuses on environmental issues in the context of the development of the world economy. Ecology is considered from the point of view of the economy and environmental problems are characterized in the context of globalization and transnationalization of the world economy. In accordance with this, the article presents the basic concepts of globalization and transnationalization and ways to solve environmental problems in the framework of improving environmental policy and the supranational environmental management system, unifying and coordinating the methods used.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-537-541
FORMATION OF AN ASSESSMENT MODEL AND PREVENTION OF TECHNICAL RISKS IN ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS
Salekh Khodzhaliev, Zainodin Rasulov, Umar Khadzhiev
Modern studies on the causes and consequences of the global financial crises confirm that the growth of the uncertainty factor in the global economy has a detrimental effect on the development of the world economy, provoking a slowdown in the economic activity of business structures. A slowdown in economic activity triggers responses from decision makers in commercial organizations, such measures include, for example, curbing investment, reducing spending through increased savings, increasing interest rates through a risk premium. According to a study by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), 42% of UK companies say leaving the EU is hurting investment activity. Of these, 98% of companies characterized this impact as negative. The increase in uncertainty due to the exit from the EU also affected the UK economy itself, which is confirmed by the estimates of the Bank of England, which indicate a decrease in investment within 3 years from 2016-2019. by 11%. Such studies confirm the relevance of the topic of managing business structures in conditions of uncertainty, which create risks for the implementation of the strategy and achievement of the goals of commercial organizations. The increase in the significance of the uncertainty factor is due to the fact that the world economy for the first time faced a significant number of large-scale changes, increasing exponentially. Change creates risks that can be sources of both favorable and unfavorable outcomes.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-542-548
Deshy Musostova, Valentina Dzobelova, Varvara Markaryan
In modern conditions, an increasing number of organizations are implementing a project management method, in which each unique business process is considered as a separate project that has phases of initiation, preparation, implementation and completion. Each project generates certain financial flows and at the same time provokes the risks associated with them. The technology of risk management in the project has certain specifics, which determines the relevance of its comprehensive study.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-549-552
Idris Bayrakov
The forms of anthropogenic impact and its degree were not the same in different epochs, changing, of course, with the development of the economy of farms. In the Chechen Republic, the processes of pollution, degradation and desertification occur on more than half of the territory. As a result, the water-regulating role of forests disappeared, rivers became shallow, and many sources were depleted. The influence of human activity on the vegetation cover in the steppe and semi-desert landscape complexes of the Chechen Republic is no less powerful than in other regions, they differed not so much in the ways of influence, but in the scale of the changes caused, in some cases larger, in others less. The deforestation of forests on the territory of the Chechen Republic was carried out in two stages. The first in the middle of the 19th century, the tsarist troops reduced forests on an area of more than 70% of the territory, the forest cover decreased from 80% to 35%. The second stage covers the Soviet period, when the forests of the Black Mountains were subjected to continuous logging in the mountain forest belt, freeing up land for tobacco culture.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-553-561
Husniddin Boymurodov
In the part of the Amudarya flowing through the territory of the Kyzylkum Nature Reserve, 9 species and 2 subspecies of bivalve mollusks of the families Unionidae and Corbiculidae were found. The acclimatization of White Amur (Ctenopharyngodon idella) and White Hummus (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix) has led to the spread of Sinanodonta gibba, S.orbicularis and S. puerorum into aquatic ecosystems. In the Amudarya, Sinanodonta seed species have led to an expansion of their distribution areas. For the first time in the reserve, 5 species included in “Red Book” of Uzbekistan Corbicula cor, S. purpurea, S.fluminalis, Colletopterum syreum sogdianum, C. bacterianum.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-562-566
Aynur Babashli, Nazilya Akhundova, Natavan Gadimova
As a result of the research, active phenol-absorbing bacterial strains belonging to the genera Pseudomonas and Arthrobacter were isolated from the Azerbaijani shores of the Caspian Sea. Biodegradation of chlorinated derivatives of phenols and aromatic hydrocarbons by isolated bacteria was studied. Investigation of biodegradation products of phenols and halogenated derivatives of aromatic hydrocarbons (p-, m-, o-chlorophenol, p-, m- process, o-chlorotoluene, chlorobenzene) and formation of halogen forms of benzene and toluene using the technology of reversed-phase liquid chromatography method. as the degradation mechanism of benzene and toluene goes through the system.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-567-572
LOW-CARBON DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE AND RUSSIA’S PRIORITIES
Muslim Eskiev, Laila Satueva, Aishat Baysangurova
The national climate doctrine has secured the priority of national interests in the development and implementation of climate policy, but the driver of its current development is the international agenda and climate initiatives of Russia's main trading partners (primarily the EU). According to a VTsIOM survey from September 202067, the majority of Russians agree that climate change is taking place on the planet (93% of respondents), and notes that they have an impact on their lives (57%). At the same time, if 52% of the Russians surveyed consider global warming to be a really serious problem, then 40% characterize this problem as far-fetched and inflated (8% found it difficult to answer). Russians are generally not ready to pay more for goods and services, even if these funds are used to introduce alternative energy sources or improve energy efficiency (62%–76% of respondents, depending on the product or service). Russian business is also against the introduction of additional climate fees. Strengthening the national climate policy in Russia is supported by the majority of the scientific community (although there are also climate skeptics in Russia) and by a number of experts who point to a significant potential increase in costs associated with both the need to adapt to climate change and the further spread of climate initiatives in the world. Thus, the climate policy in Russia can be attributed to one of the most controversial and difficult areas to develop.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-573-580
CLIMATE RISK ASSESSMENT TO DEVEPLOP SECTOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PLAN
Elena Arefyeva, Irina Oltyan, Viacheslav Krapukhin
The article provides an analysis of emergency situations caused by natural hazardous processes with a climatic factor on the territory of the Russian Federation. There is an increase in economic damage from emergencies. The constituent entities of the Russian Federation that are most vulnerable to climate change have been identified. The analysis was carried out as part of the development of a sectoral action plan for the first phase of adaptation to climate change for the period up to 2022.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-581-586
PURİFİCATİON OF ASSOCİATED GASES UNDER FİELD CONDİTİONS
Fikrat Seyfiyev, Sahib Abdurahimov, Irada Hajiyeva
The article considers the issue of extraction of aggressive components from the associated gases produced from the oil and gas wells. The presence of hydrogen sulfide and CO2 in the gas causes corrosion of equipment and pipelines on the one hand, and pollution of the environment, the emergence of technogenic risks on the other. A 15% aqueous solution of monoethanolamine has been proposed as an absorbent for H2S and CO2 capture.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-587-591
Rena Huseynova, Amida Aliyeva
The article is devoted to the issues of improving the accuracy of determining the spectral indices used to determine soil moisture. The main disadvantage of such indices is that they use the spectral absorption lines of water vapor. Consequently, the use of these indices requires adequate compensation for the influence of the atmosphere. The solution of this problem was carried out on the basis of the following provisions (a) for seven classes of soils, a model expression for the dependence of the reflection spectrum on the moisture content in the soil is known; (b) they have experimentally taken curves of the indicated dependence; (c) a function of the dependence of the experimentally measured value of soil reflection on the degree of soil moisture is introduced; (d) the search for the optimal form of the introduced function is carried out at which the square of the difference between the experimentally measured reflection value and the known model function reaches a minimum value.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-592-596
Jemil Kuliev, Konstiantyn Predun
The main part of this article describes the solution of the technical problem of creating a solar water heater device that allows to increase energy efficiency while ensuring safety, sanitary requirements and indoor microclimate. Information is given about the proposed device and method for eliminating leaks on heat-transfer pipes and their connections by automatically sealing poisonous (antifreeze), limiting the risk of its possible ingress into heated water for domestic needs.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-597-601
OPTIMAL POLLUTION CONTROL ENVIRONMENT
Alexander Chupin, Alexander Priymenko, Alexey Ukhanov
In this article, pollution is defined as the stock or flow of physical substances that diminish one's ability to enjoy life. In this definition, pollution includes a wide range of phenomena. The authors identify the following elements of pollution: natural waste, pollution of air and water pollution, depletion of soil from excessive use, radiation, intensive use of natural resources, exceeding the rate of their renewal. The authors have identified a fundamental similarity between tasks that at first glance appear to be different. The structure of control theory enables us to apply its apparatus to simple models of production and consumption. Optimal pollution control may require reducing some consumption, limiting the use of some production processes, and perhaps even limiting population growth. Pollution problems are problems of processes that change over time; this fact. The problems of pollution are time-varying processes; this fact emphasizes the need to apply a dynamic control theory approach.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-470-602-606
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Safety Research :
Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality:
Statistic, Probability and Uncertainty :
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