Fundamental of Modeling for the Assessment of Organizational Risks in the Integrated Safety System at Explosion and Fire-Hazardous Enterprises

Evgeny Gvozdev; Alexandr I. Ovsyanik

doi:10.66721/jdhepx12

Authors

Evgeny Gvozdev National Research Moscow State University of Civil Engineering Author
Alexandr I. Ovsyanik Department of Civil Defense, Protection of Population and Territories; the State Fire Academy of the Ministry of Russian Federation for Civil Defense, Emergencies and Elimination on Consequences of Natural Disasters, Borisa Galushkina St., 4, Moscow, 129366, Russian Federation; Department of Life Safety at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Russia, 105187, Moscow, Shcherbakovskaya St., 38 Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.66721/jdhepx12

Keywords:

organizational risks, integrated safety system, conditional bit, rank order centroid, indicator of quantitative evaluation

Abstract

The article examines the problem of quantitatively assessing organizational risks within the integrated safety system (ISS) of explosion and fire-hazardous enterprises. An approach is proposed for representing the ISS as an organizational management system, in which organizational risks are considered to be causal factors influencing the probability of hazardous events such as accidents and fires. For a normative evaluation of the contribution of organizational risks, it is proposed to use a conditional information measure, the "conditional bit". It reflects the contribution of a specific risk to a realized hazardous event. The possibility of applying an additive weighted model and an interval scale for ranking organizational risks is substantiated. The practical significance of the results lies in their potential use by the ISS management body while developing measures aimed at reducing organizational risks and the probability of accidents and fires.

Author Biography

Alexandr I. Ovsyanik, Department of Civil Defense, Protection of Population and Territories; the State Fire Academy of the Ministry of Russian Federation for Civil Defense, Emergencies and Elimination on Consequences of Natural Disasters, Borisa Galushkina St., 4, Moscow, 129366, Russian Federation; Department of Life Safety at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Russia, 105187, Moscow, Shcherbakovskaya St., 38

Alexandr I. OVSYANIK, Dr. Sci. (Eng.), Professor; Professor of Department of Civil Defense, Protection of Population and Territories; the State Fire Academy of the Ministry of Russian Federation for Civil Defense, Emergencies and Elimination on Consequences of Natural Disasters, Borisa Galushkina St., 4, Moscow, 129366, Russian Federation. Professor of the Department of Life Safety at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Russia, 105187, Moscow, Shcherbakovskaya St., 38. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9543-7990

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