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RT&A
2011,
# 4(23) Vol.6
I. Ushakov
THE 100TH ANNIVERSARY
OF BORIS GNEDENKO BIRTHDAY
Academician of the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences Boris
Vladimirovich Gnedenko by a common International opinion
represents one of the most prominent mathematicians who
are working in the area of Probability Theory. He
combines an exceptionally delicate possession of
classical mathematical methods with a deep understanding
of a wide range of problems of the modern probability
theory and with a permanent interest to practical
applications.
Dmitry
B. Gnedenko
ÁÎÐÈÑ ÂËÀÄÈÌÈÐÎÂÈ× ÃÍÅÄÅÍÊÎ
(01.01.1912—27.12.1995)
Á.Â. ÃÍÅÄÅÍÊÎ: ÁÈÁËÈÎÃÐÀÔÈß
Balametov A.B., Halilov, E.D.
Load Profiles
SIMULATION FOR EVALUATION energgy Losses in distribution
networks
When calculating the energy losses in distribution
networks using performance load profiles. Known methods
of calculating energy losses in electric networks are
based on normal operating conditions and functioning of
the electrical network, uninterrupted electricity supply
to consumers. Methods of calculating the losses of
electricity use charts on duration. Earlier load
profiles have stable characteristics and allow you to
calculate the energy loss to adapt to these conditions,
the simplified formulas. Currently, load profiles
feeders 6-10 kV are many different forms, there were
changes in the structure of energy consumption.
Transition economies characterized by: non-uniformity in
the daily load profiles; disconnection associated with
non-payment for electricity; limitations associated with
the overload of network elements, etc.
Alexander S. Androshchuk
RISK ASSESSMENT OF
OFFENCES AT STATE BORDER USING FUZZY HIERARCHICAL INFERENCE
A model of fuzzy inference to risk assessment of
offenses in control. The useage of models provides an
opportunity: the use of quality indicators, taking into
account inaccurate, approximate information, using
knowledge of experts, which are given in the form of
fuzzy rules. The complexity of constructing fuzzy model
conclusion is solved by a hierarchical system of opinion
and knowledge bases.
Ishay Weissman
TESTING FOR SERIAL
CORRELATION BY MEANS OF EXTREME VALUES
The largest spacing of a sample is suggested as a
possible test-statistic to detect serial dependence
(correlation) among the data. A possible application is
in testing the quality of random number generators,
which are so important in the study of systems
reliability. We compare its performance to the
Kolmogorov-Smirnov test because of their similar nature
– one is based on extreme distance between order
statistics, the second on extreme discrepancy between
the empirical distribution function and the theoretical
one. The tests are applied to several models with serial
dependence. Special attention is given to an
autoregressive model. Based on Monte Carlo simulations,
the largest spacing is more powerful for moderately
large sample size, over 50, say. A surprising connection
to extreme values is discovered, namely, that the
likelihood-ratio test, which is most powerful under the
autoregressive alternative, is based on lower extremes.
V. Zhadnov
METHODS AND MEANS OF
THE ESTIMATION OF INDICATORS OF RELIABILITY OF MECHANICAL
AND ELECTROMECHANICAL ELEMENTS OF DEVICES AND SYSTEMS
Features of the application of standards for evaluation
(predict) the reliability of mechanical and
electromechanical devices and systems are considered.
The main characteristics of the models of operational
failure rate of mechanical components and provides
recommendations for their use are given. The use of
software tools that implement the methods for
calculating reliability, can cause significant
difficulties with the reliability of initial data.
Krzysztof Kolowrocki, Joanna Soszynska-Budny
ASYMPTOTIC APPROACH
TO RELIABILITY OF LARGE COMPLEX SYSTEMS
The paper is concerned with the application of limit
reliability functions to the reliability evaluation of
large complex systems. Two-state and multi-state ageing
large complex systems composed of independent components
are considered.
V. M. Chacko, M. Manoharan
JOINT IMPORTANCE
MEASURES IN NETWORK SYSTEM
Many real world systems (electric power, transportation,
telecommunication, etc) are multistate systems composed
of multistate components in which system reliability can
be computed in terms reliabilities of its components.
Such systems may be regarded as flow networks whose arcs
(components) have independent, discrete, and
multi-valued random capacities. An arc can, at different
conditions, be characterized by different performance
levels, causing network system to work with different
levels of output performance. The criticality of such
arcs must be measured with reference to their
performance level and reliability, and its contribution
to the overall system output performance measure (OPM).
In this paper, we introduce a generalized concept of
importance measures and joint importance measures for
the flow network made up of multistate arcs with respect
to output performance measures (expected performance,
reliability and availability). An approach based on the
universal generating function (UGF) for the evaluation
of the proposed joint importance measures is
introduced. An illustrative example is given.
K. Muralidharan, Rajiv Parikh and C. D. Lai
A BAYESIAN ANALYSIS
ON WEIBULL MODEL ALLOWING NEARLY INSTANTANEOUS FAILURES
In
this
article, we study, the maximum likelihood as well as
Bayes estimation on parameters of Mixture of Weibull
with ‘nearly instantaneous failure’ as introduced in Lai
et.al. (2007). For Maximum likelihood estimation, the EM
algorithm is used. For Bayes estimation of parameters,
we used three different algorithms namely, Population
Monte Carlo method (PMC), Mixture version of
Metropolis-Hasting and Gibbs sampler. The methods are
compared using a simulation study. A numerical example
is also discussed at the end of the paper.
Lapin V., Kryvopishyn O., Katsman M.
I.S. BLIOH (1836 –
1901) RAILWAY MAGNATE AND PEACEMAKER, PROMINENT
SCIENTIST-RAILROADER: ECONOMIST, STATISTICIAN AND FINANCIER
Wretched presence of Ivan Stanislavovich Blioh (1836 –
1901) in modern historical and scientific memory of
Poland, Russia and Ukraine, that in those countries in
which he was born, was working, and lived
extraordinarily creative life specifies on possible, in
course of time, danger of complete disappearance of his
name not only from the scientific inheritance of these
states but also from European collective memory.
Unfortunately Blioh, in understanding of nationalistic
idea, was very Russian for the Polish nationalists, very
bourgeois for soviet communists, very much asimilyant
(adopted Christianity) for anti-semites, that in course
of time resulted in a partial loss, from these reasons,
his scientific acquisition and his merits as military
theorist and figure of international peaceful motion.
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