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RT&A
2010,
# 4(19) Vol.5
S. Biruk, P. Jaskowski
ON THE PROBLEMS OF MODELLING AND
RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT OF CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS DURATION
Construction projects are subject to risk. There are a
number of methods that allow the planner to consider the
effect of random occurrences on the project performance
and to assess the chances of meeting the deadlines
defined by the contract. PERT belongs to the most
popular methods as it assumes a simple approach to
estimating the distribution parameters of random
variables (task durations) based on the experience of
the planner. The paper summarises PERT’s assumptions on
the type and parameters of task duration distributions,
task duration independence, and the approach to the
analysis of the network model in the function of time.
The effects of these assumptions on the project makespan
estimate are then examined and illustrated by an
example.
G.F. Kovalev, L.M. Lebedeva
ASSESSMENT OF the effect of large -
capacity units on reliability of RUSSIA’S unified power
system
Methodical approaches to study on the problem of using
large-capacity units are substantiated. Based on the
multi-variant calculations of adequacy of Russia’s
Unified power system (UPS), that were carried out by the
software package “YANTAR”, the conclusions were drawn
that the use of large-capacity units is feasible in
terms of capacity increase and admissible in terms of
system reliability.
A. I. Pereguda, D. A. Timashov
A RELIABILITY MODEL FOR “SAFETY
SYSTEM-PROTECTED OBJECT” COMPLEX WITH MULTIPLE SAFETY
SYSTEMS
The
paper presents a new reliability model for “safety
system-protected object” complex with multiple safety
systems. It is supposed that the complex consists of one
protected object and multiple independent safety systems
with complex structures. Scheduled periodic inspections
of safety systems are also taken into account.
Asymptotic estimates of the mean time to accident and
the probability of the accident prior to time t are
obtained under some assumptions on operation process of
the complex.
Dr. Zouaoui Chikr el-Mezouar
ESTIMATION THE SHAPE, LOCATION AND
SCALE PARAMETERS OF THE WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION
In this
paper we propose a new estimators of the shape, location
and scale parameters of the weibull distribution.
Farhadzadeh E.M., Muradaliyev A.Z., Rafiyeva T.K.
IMITATIAL MODELING OF CONDITION THE
POWER BLOCK
The new
method modeling of condition power block, based on joint
application a method of modeling of casual events and
method modeling of casual processes is developed.
V. M. Chacko
ON TOTAL TIME ON TEST TRANSFORM
ORDER
In this
paper, ordering of two lifetime random variable based on
convex Total Time on Test (CXTTT) transform and
increasing convex Total Time on Test (ICXTTT) transform
of their distributions are introduced and, their
implication with stochastic ordering and hazard rate
ordering are proved.
Publisher:
John Wiley and Sons, Chichester
Editors: Ron
S. Kenett and Yossi Raanan
Operational Risk Management: a practical approach
to intelligent data analysis
Operational Risk Management is becoming a key competency
for organisations in all industries. Financial
institutions, regulated by the Basel II accord, need to
address it systematically since their level of
implementation affects their capital requirements, one
of their major operational expenses. Health
organisations have been tackling this challenge for many
years. The Institute of Medicine reported in 2000 that
44,000 - 98,000 patients die each year in the US as a
result of medication errors, surgical errors and missed
diagnoses, at an estimated cost to the US economy of
$17-$29 billion. Operational risks affect large
organisations as well as Small and Medium-sized
Enterprises (SMEs) in virtually all industries, from the
oil and gas industry, to hospitals, from education to
public services. This multi-author book is about
tracking and managing operational risks using
state-of-the-art technology that combines the analysis
of qualitative, semantic, unstructured data with
quantitative data. The examples used are mostly from
information technology but the approach is general. As
such, the book provides knowledge and methods that can
have a substantial impact on the economy and quality of
life. The book has four main parts. Part I is an
introduction to Operational Risk Management, Part II
deals with data for Operational Risk Management and its
handling, Part III covers operational risks analytics
and Part IV concludes the book with several applications
and a discussion on how Operational Risk Management
integrates with other disciplines. The fourteen chapters
and the book layout are listed below with short
descriptions.
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