Igor Ushakov
IS RELIABILITY THEORY STILL ALIVE?
At the banquet held during closing of the MMR-2004
Conference (Santa Fe, USA), one of the most prominent
specialists on Reliability Theory, Professor of The
George Washington University Nozer Singpurwalla was a
host of the discussion during the dinner. The topic he
chose was a bit provocative: “IS RELIABILITY THEORY
STILL ALIVE ?” Even the question itself led to a furious
reaction of the conference participant: ”Yes! It is
alive! It is flourishing!” What is going now if even
such a question was suggested to the audience by such a
serious mathematician who dedicated all his talent to
developing Reliability Theory?
M. Nikulin, L. Gerville-Reache, V. Couallier
NEW BOOK! Statistique des essais accElErEs
Sumantra Chakravarty
Adapting Bass-Niu model for product diffusion to software
reliability
Software reliability growth is a well studied subject,
perhaps starting with the classic work by Jelinski and
Moranda [Jelinski 1972]. Applicability of reliability
growth models is well established in where large (100
KLOC or more) software is written and maintained.
Examples of such enterprises are application software,
space exploration, telecommunication, etc. One can
obtain the definition of standard terms (e.g., fault,
failure) and operational summary of most widely used
software reliability models from a document maintained
by NASA Software Assurance Technology Center [Wallace].
Software reliability growth models address two
important, but related, questions faced by the software
industry: 1) How many remaining bugs are likely to be
present in newly developed software and how much
resources are needed for debugging to accepted level, 2)
given that it is more expensive to fix a bug after
software is released to the users, when it is
economically prudent to release the software.
G. Tsitsiashvili
ASYMPTOTIC ANALYSIS OF LOGICAL SYSTEMS WITH UNRELIABLE
ELEMENTS
In this paper models of networks with unreliable arcs
are investigated. Asymptotic formulas for probabilities
of the networks work or failure and the networks
lifetime distributions are obtained. Direct calculations
of these characteristics in general case [1], [2] demand
sufficiently large volumes of arithmetical operations.
Main parameters of the asymptotic formulas are minimal
way length and minimal section ability to handle. A
series of new algorithms and formulas to calculate
parameters of asymptotic formulas are developed.
E. Aliguliyev
Optimization probability of the unfailing work of a network
with use of statistical tests on a Monte-Carlo method
A reliability of systems with a network structure, for
example, as telecommunication networks, is determined by
a reliability of elements, making it, which can
essentially differ on the reliability. At the analysis
of a reliability the telecommunication networks usually
is described graph, where the edges of the are reflected
map the network channels, and as units act the
workstations, servers, followers, switches, router or
other devices. The parameters of a reliability
frequently depend on a loading of a network (values of
loadings of channels determining access of the users,
and quality of their service). For this reason,
formulating a problem of optimization of a reliability,
it is necessary to determine, which of parameters are
important: coherence, channel capacity, mean time to
repair, time of recovery coherence or minimization of
delay. Thanks to the structural redundancy of
telecommunication networks, the refusal of the separate
elements usually don’t result in full of the refusal of
the network, and only to partial deterioration of
quality of its functioning. The full of the refusal of a
network (for example, in any separately of taken
territory) can happen in the result of some large-scale
acts of nature - floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, which
can result in destruction of communication lines or to
global switching-off of the power supply.
M. Kaminskiy
Risk Analysis of Military Operations
The contemporary war-time military operations can be
divided into the following two stages. The first and
rather short stage includes very active actions with
considerable losses. It is followed by a much longer
stage, during which the events associated with losses
occur at a much lower rate. The examples of such
military operations are the current international
military operations in Afghanistan, Iraq and the recent
Russian military actions in Chechnya (whatever their
political status is). Below, an approach to analysis of
the military operations performance during the mentioned
above second stage is suggested. Because the daily
losses during the second stage is much less compared to
the first stage, the military operations during the
second stage, from the reliability standpoint, can be
considered as a functioning repairable system, which is
rapidly restored after each failure to at least the same
condition as it was just before the failure. In this
paper, an analysis of such military operations is
developed in the framework of the socalled repairable
system analysis. The approach can be applied not only to
the system failures, but to successes (as the respective
adversary’s losses) as well.
I. Ushakov
Counter-terrorism: Protection Resources Allocation. Part
III. Fictional “Case Study”
This paper is continuation of [Ushakov, 2006a; Ushakov,
2006b]. Here a demonstration of the methodology is
demonstrated on a fictional case study.
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